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Washington Commanders v Miami Dolphins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Commanders (Local)
Prediction 39.73%2.52fair odd
EV +13.24%
Edge +4.65%
Kelly +7.16%
Growth +0.948%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%39.65%39.43%41.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.452.8545.45%41.12%40.82%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Miami Dolphins (Visit)
Prediction 60.27%1.66fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -5.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.36%60.35%60.57%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.551.571.6072.46%64.43%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Commanders (Local): 39.73%; Miami Dolphins (Visit): 60.27%. For Washington Commanders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +13.24%E +4.65%K +7.16%G +0.948% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -14.42%E -10.16%K -34.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +11.26%E +4.02%K +6.25%G +0.704% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -15.63%E -11.16%K -39.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV +9.27%E +3.37%K +5.30%G +0.491% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -16.83%E -12.20%K -44.30%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +1.32%E +0.518%K +0.853%G +0.011% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.79%E -5.09%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 23:08 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -0.267%E -0.106%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -5.38%E -3.43%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-14 21:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.33%EV -0.267%E -0.106%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.67%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -0.665%E -0.266%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -11.41%E -7.76%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 23:08 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.06%E -0.426%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-14 22:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.06%E -0.426%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-14 22:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -1.06%E -0.426%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -7.19%E -4.67%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -2.25%E -0.916%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-14 22:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 22:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.38%E -3.43%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 11:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.59%E -4.25%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 21:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.59%E -4.25%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 21:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -3.84%E -1.59%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%EV -7.79%E -5.09%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 23:03 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.64%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.78%E -3.03%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 21:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.64%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.79%E -5.09%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 22:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.57%E -2.23%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.57%E -2.23%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.41%E -4.13%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.57%E -2.23%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.41%E -4.13%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.57%E -2.23%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.57%E -2.23%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.38%E -3.43%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.38%E -3.43%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -5.38%E -3.43%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-08-14 23:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.03% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 23:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.52% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.48% | 11.0% | 2026-08-14 23:00 |