The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

San Francisco 49ers v Washington Commanders

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 00:16 UTC

Final: San Francisco 49ers 23–17 Washington Commanders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco 49ers (Local)

Prediction 75.98%1.32fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.47%76.03%76.15%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.251.251.3089.29%79.71%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Commanders (Visit)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV +3.30%
Edge +0.768%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%23.97%23.85%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.953.904.3027.78%25.30%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Francisco 49ers (Local): 75.98%; Washington Commanders (Visit): 24.02%. For Washington Commanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV +3.30%E +0.768%K +1.00%G +0.033%3.3%2026-10-19 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV +3.30%E +0.768%K +1.00%G +0.033%3.3%2026-10-19 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV +3.30%E +0.768%K +1.00%G +0.033%3.3%2026-10-19 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV +3.30%E +0.768%K +1.00%G +0.033%3.3%2026-10-19 17:00
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 76.64%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%1.9%2026-10-20 00:15
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%4.5%2026-10-20 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%4.5%2026-10-19 17:00
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%4.5%2026-10-19 17:05
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%4.5%2026-10-19 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%5.8%2026-10-19 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%5.8%2026-10-19 15:05
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%5.8%2026-10-19 15:05
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.902%E +0.215%K +0.282%G +0.003%5.8%2026-10-19 15:05
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.27%E -3.39%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -1.50%E -0.366%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-20 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.50%E -0.366%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 00:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.55%E -5.33%K -28.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -1.50%E -0.366%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.50%E -0.366%K -0.484%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 00:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.50%E -0.366%K -0.484%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 15:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.45%EV -4.27%E -3.39%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.55%EV -1.74%E -0.426%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-19 23:55
Caesars🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -4.27%E -3.39%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -2.70%E -0.667%K -0.886%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-19 23:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 23:15
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 00:05
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 00:15
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.90%E -0.976%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-20 00:05
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.15%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.85%EV -4.14%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.15%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.85%EV -4.14%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 00:15
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.62%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.38%EV -4.62%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-20 00:14
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-20 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-20 00:10
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 00:09
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-19 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.79%E -4.67%K -24.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 00:15
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -1.23%E -0.947%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV -7.51%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-20 00:15
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.51%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 00:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.51%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.51%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 00:15
BetUS🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.51%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 00:15
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.99%E -1.54%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-20 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 00:15
Bovada🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 00:15
TAB🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 23:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 00:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 23:50
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 00:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.99%E -1.54%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 00:15
Everygame🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.99%E -1.54%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 23:59
Fliff🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 00:15
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.03%E -4.02%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 00:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.35%E -8.77%K -57.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-20 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:05
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:09
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.75%E -2.15%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:04
ReBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 00:15
picklebet_au🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.51%E -2.76%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 00:15
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.31%E -5.99%K -33.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 00:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 76.76%EV -14.91%E -13.31%K -124.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -11.11%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-19 17:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -1.23%E -0.947%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -13.51%E -3.75%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.31I 76.34%NM 76.09%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.91%0.3%2026-10-20 00:10
ProphetX◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.42%0.5%2026-10-20 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-20 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-20 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-19 23:40
Matchbook◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-20 00:05
Polymarket◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%0.9%2026-10-19 22:40
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%0.9%2026-10-19 22:30
Smarkets◎1.28I 78.13%NM 76.21%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.79%2.5%2026-10-20 00:15
BetOpenly◎1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%4.7%2026-10-19 23:50