The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Francisco 49ers v Miami Dolphins

2026-09-20 20:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco 49ers (Local)

Prediction 81.06%1.23fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.69%
Kelly -24.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.75%81.06%81.06%81.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.181.181.1884.75%84.75%84.75%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 18.94%5.28fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.666%
Kelly -0.828%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%18.94%18.94%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.025.005.1020.20%19.93%20.00%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Francisco 49ers (Local): 81.06%; Miami Dolphins (Visit): 18.94%. For Miami Dolphins (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.10, with an expected value of -3.40%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.35%E -3.69%K -24.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -3.40%E -0.666%K -0.828%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 23:40
Caesars🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.35%E -3.69%K -24.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.29%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-15 01:33
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -4.35%E -3.69%K -24.17%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -6.24%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 22:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.