San Francisco 49ers v Denver Broncos

2026-10-04 20:25 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Francisco 49ers (Local)

Prediction 56.65%1.77fair odd

EV -1.43%

Edge -0.824%

Kelly -1.94%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.15%56.65%56.65%58.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.621.681.681.7462%60%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 43.35%2.31fair odd

EV -2.46%

Edge -1.09%

Kelly -1.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.86%43.35%43.35%44.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.142.202.202.2547%46%46%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.43%E -0.824%K -1.94%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.22%E -3.38%K -6.34%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-21 09:10
Caesars	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.23%E -5.08%K -13.28%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.46%E -1.09%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-15 22:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.