The School of Odds

San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals

2026-09-27 20:05 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Francisco 49ers (Local)

Prediction 81.61%1.23fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -26.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%81.61%81.61%82.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.171.171.171.1785%85%85%85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arizona Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd
EV -0.718%
Edge -0.133%
Kelly -0.163%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.81%18.39%18.39%18.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.205.205.4020%19%19%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.54%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -0.718%E -0.133%K -0.163%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 15:49
Caesars1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -8.07%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-15 21:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.