Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals

2026-09-27 20:05 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco 49ers (Local)

Prediction 82.36%1.21fair odd

EV -3.64%

Edge -3.11%

Kelly -21.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.04%82.36%82.36%83.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.161.161.1786.96%86.21%86.21%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 17.64%5.67fair odd

EV +4.06%

Edge +0.688%

Kelly +0.829%

Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.31%17.64%17.64%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.385.255.9020.00%18.58%19.05%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Francisco 49ers (Local): 82.36%; Arizona Cardinals (Visit): 17.64%. For Arizona Cardinals (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.67. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.90, producing a positive expected value of +4.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -5.28%E -4.59%K -35.22%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +4.06%E +0.688%K +0.829%G +0.034%	3.9%	2026-09-01 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.46%E -3.84%K -27.87%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.40%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-29 17:29
Caesars🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.64%E -3.11%K -21.39%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -11.81%E -2.36%K -2.95%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-15 21:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 69.91%	2.44I 40.98%NM 30.09%	36.2%	2026-09-03 21:09