Language:English
Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Miami Dolphins (Local)
Prediction 18.01%5.55fair odd
EV +12.57%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.39%
Growth +0.301%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%18.08%18.08%20.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.415.376.2521.74%18.47%18.62%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)
Prediction 81.99%1.22fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -12.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.86%81.92%81.92%84.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.161.161.1996.15%86.47%86.21%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Dolphins (Local): 18.01%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 81.99%. For Miami Dolphins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.55. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +12.57%E +2.01%K +2.39%G +0.301% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-25 12:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +12.57%E +2.01%K +2.39%G +0.301% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-25 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +12.57%E +2.01%K +2.39%G +0.301% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-25 12:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +12.57%E +2.01%K +2.39%G +0.301% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-25 12:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.07%E +1.35%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 12:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.07%E +1.35%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 12:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.07%E +1.35%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 12:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.07%E +1.35%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 12:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.07%E +1.35%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 12:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +3.57%E +0.620%K +0.751%G +0.027% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 16:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +2.67%E +0.468%K +0.567%G +0.015% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -7.35%E -6.51%K -56.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 15:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV +1.77%E +0.313%K +0.380%G +0.007% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-27 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +0.866%E +0.155%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 15:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.21%EV +0.506%E +0.091%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.79%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.21%EV +0.506%E +0.091%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.79%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -0.035%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -0.035%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 14:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -0.035%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV -0.935%E -0.170%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -3.25%E -2.76%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-27 16:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.935%E -0.170%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.935%E -0.170%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 12:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.935%E -0.170%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 15:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.935%E -0.170%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 12:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.77%EV -1.66%E -0.303%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.23%EV -3.25%E -2.76%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.74%E -0.507%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 14:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.74%E -0.507%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 14:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.74%E -0.507%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.74%E -0.507%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.37I 18.62%NM 17.64%EV -3.28%E -0.610%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.36%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.37I 18.62%NM 17.64%EV -3.28%E -0.610%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.36%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.54%E -0.856%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 13:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -4.54%E -0.856%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -3.25%E -2.76%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-27 14:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 13:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 13:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -5.44%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 14:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 13:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 14:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 14:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 14:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 14:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.71%E -4.97%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 11:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -6.34%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.14%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -2.43%E -2.05%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.25%E -2.76%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 16:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 13:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 14:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.35%E -6.51%K -56.56%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-27 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -9.94%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 82.78%EV -14.73%E -14.17%K -368.31%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-09-25 12:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -12.64%E -2.61%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -14.44%E -3.04%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -17.15%E -3.73%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.59%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 16:33 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.99% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 84.01% | 0.0% | 2026-09-27 16:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-09-27 16:42 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Novig◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 1.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 1.4% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.55% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.45% | 2.4% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.79I 17.27%NM 16.69% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.31% | 3.5% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |