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Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-09-27 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%25.13%25.13%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.803.803.8526.67%26.32%26.32%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 74.87%1.34fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -11.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%74.87%74.87%75.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.271.271.2979.37%78.53%78.74%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Miami Dolphins (Local): 25.13%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 74.87%. For Miami Dolphins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -3.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.26%E -0.848%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.66%E -4.49%K -21.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 03:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.91%E -3.87%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 17:09
DraftKings🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.41%E -2.65%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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