Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-09-27 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Miami Dolphins (Local)

Odds

3.7027.03%Min

3.7826.49%Mean

3.7826.49%Median

3.8525.97%Max

Consensus probabilities

24.66%4.056Min

25.85%3.868Max

25.25%3.960Mean

25.25%3.960Median

25.25%3.960IQM

25.29%3.953Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.85 under the IQM model: 25.25%

EV -2.77%Edge -0.719%Kelly -0.972%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Odds

1.2679.37%Min

1.2778.43%Mean

1.2778.43%Median

1.2977.52%Max

Consensus probabilities

74.15%1.349Min

75.34%1.327Max

74.75%1.338Mean

74.75%1.338Median

74.75%1.338IQM

74.71%1.339Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.29 under the IQM model: 74.75%

EV -3.58%Edge -2.77%Kelly -12.34%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Miami Dolphins (Local) ▼	Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Caesars	3.85I 25.97% NM 24.66%EV -2.77% E -0.719% K -0.972% G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37% NM 75.34%EV -5.82% E -4.62% K -22.39% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-17 03:24
Bet Right	3.80I 26.32% NM 25.20%EV -4.03% E -1.06% K -1.44% G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13% NM 74.80%EV -4.33% E -3.38% K -15.45% G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-26 02:11
DraftKings	3.70I 27.03% NM 25.85%EV -6.56% E -1.77% K -2.43% G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52% NM 74.15%EV -3.58% E -2.77% K -12.34% G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-26 09:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth