Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-09-27 17:00 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miami Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd

EV -4.03%

Edge -1.05%

Kelly -1.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.66%24.93%24.93%25.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.803.833.833.8526%26%26%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 75.07%1.33fair odd

EV -3.91%

Edge -3.05%

Kelly -13.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.80%75.07%75.07%75.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.261.271.271.2879%79%79%78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.03%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.41%E -4.29%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-17 03:24
DraftKings	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.91%E -3.05%K -13.95%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-07-23 20:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.