Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-09-27 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

23%

77%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 23.25%4.30fair odd

EV +2.31%

Edge +0.525%

Kelly +0.680%

Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.85%23.25%23.25%24.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.854.124.104.4025.97%24.29%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 76.75%1.30fair odd

EV -3.30%

Edge -2.62%

Kelly -12.68%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.34%76.75%76.75%78.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.231.241.241.2681.30%80.43%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Miami Dolphins (Local): 23.25%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 76.75%. For Miami Dolphins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.40, producing a positive expected value of +2.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +2.31%E +0.525%K +0.680%G +0.016%	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.60%E -4.55%K -24.35%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-02 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.67%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.83%E -3.90%K -20.14%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-31 20:40
Caesars🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.48%E -2.72%K -3.68%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.30%E -2.62%K -12.68%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-17 03:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 39.94%	1.23I 81.30%NM 60.06%	35.4%	2026-09-03 23:45