Language:English
Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Los Angeles Chargers (Local)
Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV +5.95%
Edge +2.13%
Kelly +3.31%
Growth +0.197%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%38.09%37.95%40.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.492.502.8045.45%40.12%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Broncos (Visit)
Prediction 62.16%1.61fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.810%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.05%61.91%62.05%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.6368.97%65.03%65.15%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles Chargers (Local): 37.84%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 62.16%. For Los Angeles Chargers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.95%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +5.95%E +2.13%K +3.31%G +0.197% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -9.25%E -6.33%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +4.06%E +1.48%K +2.32%G +0.094% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.87%E -6.81%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -1.24%E -0.474%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -3.03%E -1.94%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-11 19:52 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.27%E -2.77%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 19:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.27%E -2.77%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 12:07 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 00:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 00:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 00:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.62%E -5.87%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-10 21:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV -1.99%E -0.770%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-11 19:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -2.75%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -6.14%E -4.07%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 20:03 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.27%E -2.77%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 20:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -3.89%E -1.53%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -5.52%E -3.63%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -4.26%E -1.69%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.03%E -1.94%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 19:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.03%E -1.94%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -6.91%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 19:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 20:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -8.43%E -3.48%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -1.17%E -0.733%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.95%EV -8.43%E -3.48%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.05%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV +1.32%E +0.810%K +2.10%G +0.028% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.03%E -1.94%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -11.83%E -5.08%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -0.544%E -0.340%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -11.83%E -5.08%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -0.544%E -0.340%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -11.83%E -5.08%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -0.544%E -0.340%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -11.83%E -5.08%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -0.544%E -0.340%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -12.21%E -5.26%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -0.544%E -0.340%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -13.72%E -6.02%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -2.41%E -1.53%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -14.86%E -6.60%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -3.65%E -2.36%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -16.75%E -7.61%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -6.14%E -4.07%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| Novig◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 20:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 19:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.47% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.53% | 1.9% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33% | 2.5% | 2026-10-11 20:04 |