The School of Odds
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Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 13:32 UTC

Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 31–34 Houston Texans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Local)

Prediction 55.71%1.79fair odd
EV -0.835%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.66%55.70%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.711.711.7866.23%58.58%58.48%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Texans (Visit)

Prediction 44.29%2.26fair odd
EV -0.349%
Edge -0.155%
Kelly -0.280%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%44.34%44.30%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.152.152.2550.76%46.48%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacksonville Jaguars (Local): 55.71%; Houston Texans (Visit): 44.29%. For Houston Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.349%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -0.835%E -0.469%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -3.45%E -1.58%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 12:28
BetAnything🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -6.11%E -2.88%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -6.11%E -2.88%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -6.11%E -2.88%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:29
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -2.51%E -1.43%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -3.45%E -1.58%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-18 13:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -2.51%E -1.43%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 11:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.51%E -1.43%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.21%E -4.49%K -8.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 13:29
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -1.24%E -0.554%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-18 13:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.34%E -2.01%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 13:18
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:24
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:25
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:29
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 12:39
Everygame🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.06%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:28
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.62%E -2.09%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 12:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.62%E -2.09%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 12:20
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -4.18%E -2.43%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.45%E -1.58%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 13:24
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.18%E -2.43%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 12:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.18%E -2.43%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 12:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.18%E -2.43%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 13:15
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.18%E -2.43%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.11%E -2.88%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -1.24%E -0.554%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 13:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -1.24%E -0.554%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 13:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -1.24%E -0.554%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 13:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -1.24%E -0.554%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 13:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 01:55
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.45%E -1.58%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 13:29
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 13:20
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 13:24
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 12:04
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.99%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 13:30
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 12:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 13:09
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:24
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:19
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:24
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:29
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:09
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 12:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.38%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.62%EV -6.55%E -3.10%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:09
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.99%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 13:09
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.99%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 13:08
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.85%E -3.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -0.349%E -0.155%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-18 12:19
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.41%E -3.81%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 00:05
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.41%E -3.81%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 00:05
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.41%E -3.81%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 00:05
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.41%E -3.81%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.56%E -1.17%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 00:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 20:35
picklebet_au🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.99%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 12:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.08%E -4.90%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.21%E -4.49%K -8.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 13:03
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.91%EV -8.63%E -5.26%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -7.88%E -3.79%K -7.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 12:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.40%EV -10.86%E -6.79%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -8.32%E -4.02%K -7.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 12:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 56.61%EV -15.88%E -10.51%K -31.13%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 43.39%EV -12.75%E -6.47%K -13.14%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-18 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%0.3%2026-10-18 13:19
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%0.4%2026-10-18 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-10-18 13:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-10-18 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-10-18 13:20
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-10-18 13:19
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-10-18 13:30
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-10-18 13:15
BetOpenly◎1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%3.0%2026-10-18 13:29
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%9.9%2026-10-18 13:30