The School of Odds

Michigan State Spartans v Toledo Rockets

2026-09-05 00:00 — NCAAF

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Option 1: Michigan State Spartans (Local)

1.2083.33%Min
1.2381.18%Mean
1.2480.65%Median
1.2580.00%Max
76.34%1.310Min
78.81%1.269Max
77.17%1.296Mean
77.06%1.298Median
77.03%1.298IQM
77.18%1.296Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.25 under the IQM model: 77.03%

EV -3.71%Edge -2.97%Kelly -14.86%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Toledo Rockets (Visit)

3.9525.32%Min
4.1224.29%Mean
4.1024.39%Median
4.5022.22%Max
21.19%4.719Min
23.66%4.226Max
22.83%4.381Mean
22.94%4.360Median
22.97%4.353IQM
22.82%4.382Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.50 under the IQM model: 22.97%

EV +3.37%Edge +0.750%Kelly +0.964%Growth +0.033%

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMichigan State Spartans (Local)Toledo Rockets (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet1.21I 82.64% NM 78.81%EV -6.80% E -5.62% K -32.36% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 21.19%EV +3.37% E +0.750% K +0.964% G +0.033%4.9%2026-06-16 16:20
Unibet (UK)1.20I 83.33% NM 78.57%EV -7.57% E -6.31% K -37.83% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV +1.08% E +0.245% K +0.317% G +0.003%6.1%2026-07-06 09:35
FanDuel1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.26% E -4.27% K -22.85% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -1.22% E -0.284% K -0.370% G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-03 18:30
Caesars1.24I 80.65% NM 77.21%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.79%EV -3.52% E -0.838% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-20 20:07
Coolbet1.23I 81.30% NM 77.35%EV -5.26% E -4.27% K -22.85% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.65%EV -3.52% E -0.838% K -1.10% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 18:30
betPARX1.24I 80.65% NM 76.99%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.15I 24.10% NM 23.01%EV -4.67% E -1.12% K -1.48% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
Svenska Spel1.24I 80.65% NM 76.99%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.15I 24.10% NM 23.01%EV -4.67% E -1.12% K -1.48% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
ATG (SE)1.24I 80.65% NM 76.99%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.15I 24.10% NM 23.01%EV -4.67% E -1.12% K -1.48% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65% NM 76.99%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.15I 24.10% NM 23.01%EV -4.67% E -1.12% K -1.48% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
DraftKings1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64%EV -3.71% E -2.97% K -14.86% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36%EV -5.82% E -1.42% K -1.88% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-06 11:14
GTbets1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64%EV -3.71% E -2.97% K -14.86% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36%EV -5.82% E -1.42% K -1.88% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-06 11:15
Bovada1.24I 80.65% NM 76.56%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.05I 24.69% NM 23.44%EV -6.96% E -1.72% K -2.28% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 11:15
NordicBet1.23I 81.30% NM 76.62%EV -5.26% E -4.27% K -22.85% G +0.000%4.03I 24.81% NM 23.38%EV -7.42% E -1.84% K -2.45% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-20 20:09
Betsson1.23I 81.30% NM 76.62%EV -5.26% E -4.27% K -22.85% G +0.000%4.03I 24.81% NM 23.38%EV -7.42% E -1.84% K -2.45% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-20 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.24I 80.65% NM 76.34%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.66%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet (SE)1.24I 80.65% NM 76.34%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.66%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65% NM 76.34%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.66%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
BetRivers1.24I 80.65% NM 76.34%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.66%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet1.24I 80.65% NM 76.34%EV -4.49% E -3.62% K -18.69% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.66%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:29
PointsBet (AU)1.20I 83.33% NM 76.92%EV -7.57% E -6.31% K -37.83% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08%EV -8.11% E -2.03% K -2.70% G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-03 18:30
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33% NM 76.70%EV -7.57% E -6.31% K -37.83% G +0.000%3.95I 25.32% NM 23.30%EV -9.26% E -2.34% K -3.14% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-07 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth