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Michigan State Spartans v Toledo Rockets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan State Spartans (Local)
Prediction 77.56%1.29fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -5.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.03%77.48%77.46%79.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2784.75%81.84%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toledo Rockets (Visit)
Prediction 22.44%4.46fair odd
EV +5.49%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.081%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%22.52%22.54%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.624.314.254.7027.62%23.21%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan State Spartans (Local): 77.56%; Toledo Rockets (Visit): 22.44%. For Toledo Rockets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -7.71%E -6.48%K -40.57%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -8.48%E -7.19%K -47.13%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -8.48%E -7.19%K -47.13%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +5.49%E +1.17%K +1.48%G +0.081% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.999%E +0.222%K +0.285%G +0.003% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 22:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.999%E +0.222%K +0.285%G +0.003% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +0.999%E +0.222%K +0.285%G +0.003% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.35%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.65%EV -0.124%E -0.028%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -1.25%E -0.283%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.25%E -0.283%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.25%E -0.283%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.25%E -0.283%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -2.37%E -0.544%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -2.37%E -0.544%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.74%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.26%EV -2.82%E -0.651%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.93%E -5.78%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.82%E -0.651%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.49%E -0.812%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 13:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.49%E -0.812%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 19:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 02:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 12:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV -4.84%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV -4.84%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.73%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.73%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 18:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.61%E -3.74%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.73%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 02:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.51%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.49%EV -6.41%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.51%EV -6.16%E -5.09%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.49%EV -6.41%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -6.86%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.06%E -2.44%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.93%E -5.78%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 12:31 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.93%E -5.78%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 12:33 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.06%E -2.44%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.06%E -2.44%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 14:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.83%E -3.09%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.38%E -4.41%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.22%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 16:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.03%EV -1.50%E -1.18%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.97%EV -18.75%E -5.18%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.07% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.93% | 0.4% | 2026-09-04 14:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |