The School of Odds

Michigan State Spartans v Toledo Rockets

2026-09-05 00:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Michigan State Spartans (Local)

Prediction 77.65%1.29fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -11.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.19%77.88%77.62%80.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.161.221.241.2586.21%81.68%80.65%80.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Toledo Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 22.35%4.47fair odd
EV +7.28%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.140%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%22.12%22.38%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.154.8025.00%23.66%24.10%20.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -8.37%E -7.10%K -46.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +7.28%E +1.52%K +1.92%G +0.140%5.6%2026-07-26 00:40
Hard Rock Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +6.16%E +1.30%K +1.64%G +0.101%4.4%2026-07-23 09:00
FanDuel1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -6.04%E -4.99%K -28.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +2.81%E +0.611%K +0.781%G +0.022%4.4%2026-07-27 14:20
Unibet (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -7.60%E -6.38%K -39.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +2.81%E +0.611%K +0.781%G +0.022%5.8%2026-07-27 14:20
MyBookie.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.37%E -7.10%K -46.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.81%E +0.611%K +0.781%G +0.022%6.5%2026-07-27 14:20
Caesars1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.89%E -0.905%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 19:38
Coolbet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.89%E -0.905%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 14:25
LeoVegas1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -9.93%E -8.56%K -62.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -6.13%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-28 00:15
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -7.25%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
Svenska Spel1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -7.25%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
ATG (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -7.25%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -7.25%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 13:30
Betr (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.94%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -7.25%E -1.75%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 14:20
DraftKings1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -2.94%E -2.35%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -8.36%E -2.04%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-23 08:59
GTbets1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -2.94%E -2.35%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -8.36%E -2.04%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-23 08:59
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -2.94%E -2.35%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -8.36%E -2.04%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-27 10:40
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.94%E -2.35%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 08:58
LeoVegas (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
BetRivers1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:30
Unibet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.71%E -3.00%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 13:29
PointsBet (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.60%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.