Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daria Kasatkina v Jelena Ostapenko

2026-10-13 04:00 UTC — WTA Wuhan Open

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daria Kasatkina (Local)

Predicción 45.31%2.21momio equitativo
EV -2.58%
Ventaja -1.20%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.21%45.36%45.32%46.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.972.072.082.1550.76%48.23%48.08%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jelena Ostapenko (Visitante)

Predicción 54.69%1.83momio equitativo
EV -2.65%
Ventaja -1.49%
Kelly -3.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.58%54.64%54.68%55.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.631.731.731.7861.35%57.93%57.80%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Daria Kasatkina (Local): 45.31%; Jelena Ostapenko (Visitante): 54.69%. Para Daria Kasatkina (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.21. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.15, con un valor esperado de -2.58%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.58%E -1.20%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.48%E -3.79%K -9.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 16:17
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-11 18:39
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.64%EV -3.94%E -1.86%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.36%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 16:15
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.94%E -1.86%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 18:39
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.94%E -1.86%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 18:44
DraftKings🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.94%E -1.86%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.94%E -1.86%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.12%E -4.84%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 18:39
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.84%E -2.78%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 18:19
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 16:14
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 16:14
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 18:38
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 16:15
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 16:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 18:19
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.48%E -3.79%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 16:15
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:19
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -5.75%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.84%E -2.78%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 18:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -6.20%E -3.00%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 18:39
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -6.66%E -3.23%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 19:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -6.66%E -3.23%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 19:14
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 17:25
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.84%E -2.78%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 16:15
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.48%E -3.79%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 18:36
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 18:38
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.11%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.67%E -5.19%K -12.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -8.47%E -4.19%K -8.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -4.30%E -2.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 16:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.23%EV -8.92%E -4.44%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -9.22%E -5.55%K -13.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 18:38
ReBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.23%EV -8.92%E -4.44%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -9.22%E -5.55%K -13.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 18:39
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.38%E -4.69%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.38%E -4.69%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 16:15
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.38%E -4.69%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 16:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.30%EV -10.28%E -5.19%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -10.31%E -6.29%K -16.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.88%EV -10.74%E -5.45%K -11.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.67%E -5.19%K -12.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 18:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.28%EV -10.74%E -5.45%K -11.07%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -10.86%E -6.66%K -17.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-10-11 20:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-10-11 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-10-11 19:55
Novig◎2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%3.7%2026-10-11 19:25
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%10.1%2026-10-11 20:20