Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari v Yuliia Starodubtseva

Inicio: 2026-09-03 22:13 UTC

Final: Maria Sakkari 1–2 Yuliia Starodubtseva

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari (Local)

Predicción 64.07%1.56momio equitativo
EV -0.693%
Ventaja -0.447%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.50%64.08%63.93%66.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.491.501.5571.43%67.11%66.67%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante)

Predicción 35.93%2.78momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +0.843%
Kelly +1.30%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.73%35.92%36.07%37.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.632.622.8540.00%38.05%38.17%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Maria Sakkari (Local): 64.07%; Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante): 35.93%. Para Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.78. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.40%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +2.40%E +0.843%K +1.30%G +0.031%3.1%2026-09-03 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +2.40%E +0.843%K +1.30%G +0.031%3.1%2026-09-03 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -4.54%E -3.04%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV +1.68%E +0.595%K +0.920%G +0.016%2.4%2026-09-03 21:40
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV +0.606%E +0.217%K +0.337%G +0.002%3.7%2026-09-03 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.19%E -0.433%K -0.680%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -1.19%E -0.433%K -0.680%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 21:40
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.85%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.15%EV -1.91%E -0.699%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.54%E -3.04%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.27%E -0.834%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 22:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 21:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 22:05
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 22:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 15:10
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.46%E -4.42%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 20:05
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.10%E -4.90%K -15.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.99%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 21:40
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.06%E -1.52%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 21:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -7.10%E -4.90%K -15.78%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -4.06%E -1.52%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 21:00
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 22:05
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 21:40
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 21:00
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.46%E -4.42%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.78%E -1.81%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 21:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -4.54%E -3.04%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -5.14%E -1.95%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 21:00
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.50%E -2.09%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 15:15
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 22:00
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 22:10
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 21:15
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -7.10%E -4.90%K -15.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:04
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.74%E -5.38%K -17.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.74%E -5.38%K -17.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.86%E -2.24%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 21:40
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -6.22%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:15
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%EV -6.22%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 21:00
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%EV -6.22%E -2.38%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 21:00
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 22:10
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 22:05
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:45
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.18%E -3.50%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.82%E -3.96%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.58%E -2.53%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:30
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -0.693%E -0.447%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV -6.94%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 16:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -1.97%E -1.29%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.61%E -1.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.61%E -1.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 10:20
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.61%E -1.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.26%E -2.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.38%E -3.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 10:20
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.17%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 22:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.17%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 10:20
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.90%E -2.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.17%E -4.07%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 09:58
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-03 22:10
ProphetX◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-09-03 22:05
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-03 22:10
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%1.6%2026-09-03 22:05
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10%1.8%2026-09-03 22:00