Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari v Yuliia Starodubtseva

2026-09-03 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari (Local)

Predicción 58.08%1.72momio equitativo
EV -4.17%
Ventaja -2.52%
Kelly -6.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.22%58.10%58.14%60.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.611.621.6564.52%61.93%61.73%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante)

Predicción 41.92%2.39momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.635%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.74%41.90%41.86%42.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.272.302.3547.62%44.09%43.48%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Maria Sakkari (Local): 58.08%; Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante): 41.92%. Para Yuliia Starodubtseva (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.39. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.35, con un valor esperado de -1.49%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.17%E -2.52%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.49%E -0.635%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-02 01:25
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.52%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 23:50
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.17%E -2.52%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-02 00:16
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.75%E -2.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.26%E -2.33%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 04:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.75%E -2.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.68%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 04:45
GTbets🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.01%E -1.75%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 00:49
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.43%E -1.94%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 04:45
DraftKings🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.10%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.90%EV -5.26%E -2.33%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 23:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -5.33%E -3.27%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -6.10%E -2.72%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 04:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:51
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:51
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 00:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 01:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.68%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 04:40
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.68%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 23:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.68%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -7.36%E -3.33%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 04:45
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.91%E -3.65%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 04:45
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 00:50
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 00:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 02:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.49%E -4.03%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 02:40
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.07%E -4.42%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 04:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -7.07%E -4.42%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -4.43%E -1.94%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 00:51
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -7.07%E -4.42%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -4.43%E -1.94%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 01:55
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.07%E -4.42%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.68%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 01:58
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.07%E -4.42%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 23:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.53%EV -8.23%E -5.21%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -10.29%E -4.81%K -9.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 04:44
ReBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.53%EV -8.23%E -5.21%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -10.29%E -4.81%K -9.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 04:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -8.81%E -5.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -11.97%E -5.70%K -10.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-02 04:41
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -9.39%E -6.02%K -16.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.97%E -5.70%K -10.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-02 04:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.97%E -6.43%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -1.49%E -0.635%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 04:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%2.8%2026-09-02 04:50
Novig1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%11.4%2026-09-02 04:55
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 57.53%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%12.1%2026-09-02 04:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 59.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.17%18.5%2026-09-02 04:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 59.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.17%18.5%2026-09-02 04:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 59.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.17%18.5%2026-09-02 04:30
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 60.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.31%21.1%2026-09-02 04:35
ProphetX1.24I 80.65%NM 53.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 46.44%50.6%2026-09-02 04:50