Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula v Sorana Cirstea

Início: 2026-09-06 23:10 UTC

Final: Jessica Pegula 2–0 Sorana Cirstea

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Previsão 71.58%1.40odd justa
EV -2.65%
Vantagem -1.95%
Kelly -7.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.36

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
69.98%71.63%71.88%73.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.281.321.331.3678.13%75.91%75.19%73.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sorana Cirstea (Visitante)

Previsão 28.42%3.52odd justa
EV +3.73%
Vantagem +1.02%
Kelly +1.41%
Crescimento +0.052%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.11%28.37%28.12%30.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.423.403.6532.26%29.23%29.41%27.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jessica Pegula (Local): 71.58%; Sorana Cirstea (Visitante): 28.42%. Para Sorana Cirstea (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.52. 17 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.65, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.73%.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Casumo🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
betPARX🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV +3.73%E +1.02%K +1.41%G +0.052%4.9%2026-09-06 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76%EV +3.44%E +0.946%K +1.30%G +0.045%2.7%2026-09-06 22:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.31%E +0.641%K +0.887%G +0.020%5.3%2026-09-06 22:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.38%E -6.54%K -29.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +0.885%E +0.249%K +0.347%G +0.003%6.3%2026-09-06 22:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -0.536%E -0.153%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 22:25
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -0.536%E -0.153%K -0.214%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 22:45
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.51%E -4.18%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -0.536%E -0.153%K -0.214%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:35
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.23%E -4.75%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -0.536%E -0.153%K -0.214%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 22:34
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.536%E -0.153%K -0.214%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -1.96%E -0.567%K -0.799%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 22:25
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -6.23%E -4.75%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -1.96%E -0.567%K -0.799%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 22:55
ReBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.12%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.88%EV -2.24%E -0.651%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 22:25
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 21:35
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-05 23:05
BetAnything🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 21:55
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 21:55
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.23%E -4.75%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 22:31
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:34
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:31
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:30
Fliff🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.38%E -0.993%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 22:45
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 22:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.51%E -4.18%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 22:30
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.51%E -4.18%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.06%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.94%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.06%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.94%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 22:55
GTbets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.46%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.54%EV -5.37%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.22%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.51%E -4.18%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.22%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 22:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -6.22%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 22:55
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.36%E -2.49%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 22:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 20:55
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:55
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:55
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:45
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 22:35
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -7.92%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 21:35
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 22:55
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.22%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.78%EV -10.20%E -3.23%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:55
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.22%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.78%EV -10.20%E -3.23%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 22:55
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 13:51
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-09-06 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-09-06 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-09-06 22:55
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-09-06 22:55
Novig◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.78%3.51I 28.49%NM 28.22%1.0%2026-09-06 22:55
ProphetX◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%1.4%2026-09-06 22:55
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-09-06 22:55