Language:English
Jelena Ostapenko v Jasmine Paolini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jelena Ostapenko (Local)
Prediction 43.11%2.32fair odd
EV -0.844%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.649%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.78%43.11%43.15%44.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3048.78%45.50%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jasmine Paolini (Visit)
Prediction 56.89%1.76fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.11%56.89%56.85%58.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7262.50%60.04%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jelena Ostapenko (Local): 43.11%; Jasmine Paolini (Visit): 56.89%. For Jelena Ostapenko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.844%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.844%E -0.367%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.844%E -0.367%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.15%E -1.25%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-22 14:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.72%E -1.59%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-22 12:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.29%E -1.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-22 14:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 14:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -3.86%E -1.73%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -8.98%E -5.61%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 12:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.29%E -1.93%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.43%E -2.64%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.72%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 14:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.72%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 14:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.72%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 14:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.72%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 14:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -4.72%E -2.14%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-22 14:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.86%E -2.28%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 03:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.43%E -2.64%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 14:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 06:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 10:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.56%E -3.35%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 08:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.27%E -4.46%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.16%E -2.34%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.27%E -4.46%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 09:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.02%E -2.76%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.43%E -2.64%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-22 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.02%E -2.76%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.43%E -2.64%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.43%E -2.64%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 03:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 11:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 11:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 00:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.70%E -4.09%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.31%E -3.40%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.70%E -4.09%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -7.74%E -3.62%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -3.29%E -1.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 13:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.47%E -4.51%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 13:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.47%E -4.51%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 13:13 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.47%E -4.51%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 13:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.47%E -4.51%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.13%E -3.72%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-22 03:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.62%E -5.67%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.00%E -2.99%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-22 13:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-22 14:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64% | 2.1% | 2026-03-22 14:55 |