L’École des cotes

Leylah Fernandez v Julia Grabher

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-23 16:41 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

61 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Leylah Fernandez (Local)

Prévision 82.98%1.21cote équitable
EV +2.90%
Avantage +2.34%
Kelly +12.08%
Croissance +0.350%

avec la cote maximale 1.24

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
76.34%82.72%83.07%87.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.061.151.151.2494.34%87.08%86.96%80.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Julia Grabher (Visiteur)

Prévision 17.02%5.88cote équitable
EV +27.63%
Avantage +3.68%
Kelly +4.25%
Croissance +1.17%

avec la cote maximale 7.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.38%17.28%16.93%23.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.005.285.307.5025.00%18.94%18.87%13.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (61 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
888sport (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV +27.63%E +3.68%K +4.25%G +1.17%7.7%2026-04-23 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -12.04%E -11.36%K -200.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV +27.63%E +3.68%K +4.25%G +1.17%7.7%2026-04-23 16:40
888sport1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +10.61%E +1.63%K +1.93%G +0.205%6.3%2026-04-23 16:39
FanDuel1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +2.11%E +0.351%K +0.421%G +0.009%5.2%2026-04-23 16:40
Betway1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +2.11%E +0.351%K +0.421%G +0.009%6.0%2026-04-23 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +2.11%E +0.351%K +0.421%G +0.009%7.6%2026-04-23 16:40
NordicBet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.19%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV +0.403%E +0.068%K +0.082%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 16:40
Coolbet1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -1.30%E -0.224%K -0.271%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 16:40
Betclic (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -9.55%E -8.76%K -106.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -1.30%E -0.224%K -0.271%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:39
Unibet (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -2.15%E -0.374%K -0.452%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:35
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -2.15%E -0.374%K -0.452%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -2.15%E -0.374%K -0.452%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 16:40
DraftKings1.15I 86.96%NM 83.06%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.94%EV -4.02%E -0.713%K -0.867%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 16:39
Unibet (NL)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.840%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Unibet (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.840%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Casumo1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.840%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:40
betPARX1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.70%E -0.840%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:40
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:35
Bet Victor1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 16:38
theScore Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 16:35
Betsson1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 16:39
BoyleSports1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 16:40
Caesars1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.89%E -7.11%K -71.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -6.40%E -1.16%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 16:39
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 81.57%EV -0.421%E -0.351%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.43%EV -9.64%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-23 16:35
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Virgin Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:40
BetRivers1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:40
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:40
LiveScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:40
Bally Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -9.81%E -1.85%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:40
Fliff1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -10.66%E -2.03%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 16:40
LeoVegas1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -11.51%E -2.21%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -6.23%E -5.51%K -47.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -11.51%E -2.21%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:40
Fanatics1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -11.51%E -2.21%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 16:35
SportsBet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -13.21%E -2.59%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:20
GTbets1.17I 85.47%NM 81.31%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.69%EV -13.38%E -2.63%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:19
Bovada1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.08%E -1.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 16:38
William Hill1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:19
Unibet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:40
Svenska Spel1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:40
Hard Rock Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.91%E -2.49%K -17.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:40
PointsBet (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 16:39
BetMGM1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 16:40
TAB1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.57%E -3.97%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 16:35
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.40%E -4.74%K -38.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -14.91%E -2.98%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:34
PMU (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 81.67%EV -8.72%E -7.93%K -87.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -16.61%E -3.39%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 16:35
1xBet1.21I 82.64%NM 80.13%EV +0.409%E +0.338%K +1.95%G +0.008%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.87%EV -16.95%E -3.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 16:29
BetUS1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -2.08%E -1.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -19.17%E -4.04%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 16:20
ReBet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -0.421%E -0.351%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -20.02%E -4.26%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 16:19
Bet Right1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -0.421%E -0.351%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -21.72%E -4.72%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:28
Betr (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -1.25%E -1.05%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -22.57%E -4.96%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 16:28
Unibet (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -1.25%E -1.05%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -22.57%E -4.96%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 16:19
Winamax (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 80.07%EV -7.06%E -6.30%K -58.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -23.42%E -5.20%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 16:39
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -2.08%E -1.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -25.12%E -5.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -2.08%E -1.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -25.12%E -5.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 16:20
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -2.08%E -1.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -26.82%E -6.24%K -8.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 16:19
LowVig.ag1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV +2.07%E +1.68%K +8.99%G +0.186%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -27.34%E -6.40%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 16:20
BetOnline.ag1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV +2.07%E +1.68%K +8.99%G +0.186%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -27.34%E -6.40%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 16:20
PlayUp1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV +2.90%E +2.34%K +12.08%G +0.350%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -31.93%E -7.98%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 16:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90%0.3%2026-04-23 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%0.6%2026-04-23 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-04-23 16:40
Smarkets1.16I 86.21%NM 85.05%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-04-23 16:40
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Novig1.16I 86.21%NM 83.68%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.32%3.0%2026-04-23 16:40