L’École des cotes

Karolina Pliskova v Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-06 17:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

44 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Karolina Pliskova (Local)

Prévision 43.19%2.32cote équitable
EV +23.94%
Avantage +8.34%
Kelly +12.80%
Croissance +3.07%

avec la cote maximale 2.87

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.79%42.65%43.15%60.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.592.162.102.8762.89%46.36%47.62%34.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (Visiteur)

Prévision 56.81%1.76cote équitable
EV +36.35%
Avantage +15.15%
Kelly +25.97%
Croissance +9.44%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.85%57.35%56.85%67.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.671.672.4071.43%59.85%59.88%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (44 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -31.33%E -19.71%K -53.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +36.35%E +15.15%K +25.97%G +9.44%4.6%2026-05-06 16:32
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -0.007%E -0.004%K -0.010%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 16:55
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -0.575%E -0.329%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 16:56
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:56
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:55
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:55
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:55
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:56
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:56
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.45%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:56
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 16:55
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 16:54
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:55
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:56
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:56
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:56
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:55
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 16:56
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 16:56
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 16:56
Bally Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 16:55
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:55
Caesars2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 16:54
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
LeoVegas2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -10.61%E -5.12%K -9.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 16:56
Pinnacle2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%EV +1.06%E +0.451%K +0.787%G +0.008%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%EV -6.82%E -4.16%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-06 16:56
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.30%EV -14.49%E -7.32%K -14.79%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -6.82%E -4.16%K -10.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 16:55
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.39%E -4.54%K -11.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 16:50
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -7.39%E -4.54%K -11.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 16:56
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.96%E -4.91%K -12.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 16:55
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.96%E -4.91%K -12.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 16:56
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 16:55
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 16:56
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.672%E -0.292%K -0.517%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 16:50
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.60%G +0.095%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -11.94%E -7.70%K -21.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 16:56
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -0.672%E -0.292%K -0.517%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -13.64%E -8.98%K -26.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +5.81%E +2.37%K +4.00%G +0.232%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -14.78%E -9.85%K -29.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +5.81%E +2.37%K +4.00%G +0.232%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -14.78%E -9.85%K -29.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 16:55
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV +13.15%E +5.02%K +8.12%G +1.07%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -17.62%E -12.15%K -39.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 16:55
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +23.94%E +8.34%K +12.80%G +3.07%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -20.46%E -14.61%K -51.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 16:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-05-06 16:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-05-06 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-05-06 16:56
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%1.7%2026-05-06 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.0%2026-05-06 16:56
Novig2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-05-06 16:56