Language:English
Jessica Pegula v Donna Vekic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula (Local)
Prediction 86.15%1.16fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -29.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.27%86.16%86.23%88.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.101.111.1295.24%90.65%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Donna Vekic (Visit)
Prediction 13.85%7.22fair odd
EV +13.60%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.257%
assuming max odds 8.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.64%13.84%13.77%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.826.958.2016.67%14.67%14.40%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jessica Pegula (Local): 86.15%; Donna Vekic (Visit): 13.85%. For Donna Vekic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.22. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%EV +13.60%E +1.66%K +1.89%G +0.257% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +10.83%E +1.35%K +1.55%G +0.168% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 16:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +10.83%E +1.35%K +1.55%G +0.168% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 22:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.14%EV -9.55%E -9.09%K -190.93%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +8.06%E +1.03%K +1.19%G +0.096% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 00:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.51%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.78I 12.85%NM 12.49%EV +7.78%E +1.00%K +1.15%G +0.089% | 2.9% | 2026-03-08 01:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +3.90%E +0.520%K +0.600%G +0.023% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +3.90%E +0.520%K +0.600%G +0.023% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 22:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.44%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.01I 14.27%NM 13.56%EV -2.89%E -0.412%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-08 01:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 00:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 13:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 22:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 22:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 00:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -3.02%E -0.432%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 00:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.19%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.99I 14.31%NM 13.81%EV -3.16%E -0.452%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-06 12:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV -4.41%E -0.639%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 01:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV -4.41%E -0.639%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.16%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.85I 14.60%NM 13.84%EV -5.10%E -0.745%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -5.79%E -0.852%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 20:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV -5.79%E -0.852%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 00:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.29%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV -5.79%E -0.852%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 01:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -6.49%E -0.961%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 01:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -6.49%E -0.961%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -6.49%E -0.961%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 00:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -8.70%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -8.70%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -9.95%E -1.53%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 06:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -9.95%E -1.53%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 06:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -9.95%E -1.53%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 13:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -9.95%E -1.53%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.96%E -6.45%K -87.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.95%E -1.53%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 22:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV -10.64%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 22:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -6.10%E -5.60%K -67.78%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -11.34%E -1.77%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -6.10%E -5.60%K -67.78%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -11.34%E -1.77%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 16:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -13.41%E -2.15%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -13.41%E -2.15%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 06:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -14.11%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 06:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -14.11%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 06:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 12:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 12:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.52%E -3.14%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 16:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.38%E -3.94%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 12:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.24%E -4.76%K -52.39%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -16.88%E -2.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 01:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 00:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 00:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 01:44 |
| Novig◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-03-08 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92% | 2.3% | 2026-03-08 01:49 |