L’École des cotes

Ajla Tomljanovic v Jasmine Paolini

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-08 20:54 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Ajla Tomljanovic (Local)

Prévision 38.64%2.59cote équitable
EV +2.78%
Avantage +1.05%
Kelly +1.67%
Croissance +0.047%

avec la cote maximale 2.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.94%38.66%38.12%41.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.462.502.6645.45%40.68%40.00%37.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jasmine Paolini (Visiteur)

Prévision 61.36%1.63cote équitable
EV -1.82%
Avantage -1.14%
Kelly -3.04%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.82%61.34%61.88%64.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.471.531.531.6068.03%65.40%65.36%62.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67%EV +2.78%E +1.05%K +1.67%G +0.047%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-08 20:05
FanDuel2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV +2.01%E +0.760%K +1.22%G +0.025%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-08 20:49
LowVig.ag2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV +1.23%E +0.471%K +0.762%G +0.009%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 20:04
BetOnline.ag2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV +1.23%E +0.471%K +0.762%G +0.009%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 20:05
Unibet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV +1.23%E +0.471%K +0.762%G +0.009%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -9.80%E -6.67%K -20.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 20:39
Marathon Bet2.61I 38.31%NM 36.34%EV +0.848%E +0.325%K +0.527%G +0.004%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.66%EV -8.57%E -5.75%K -17.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 20:44
BetUS2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV +0.462%E +0.178%K +0.289%G +0.001%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-08 20:39
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.462%E +0.178%K +0.289%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 20:45
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.462%E +0.178%K +0.289%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 20:45
SportsBet2.57I 38.91%NM 36.54%EV -0.697%E -0.271%K -0.444%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.46%EV -9.19%E -6.21%K -19.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 20:49
NetBet (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -0.697%E -0.271%K -0.444%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -9.80%E -6.67%K -20.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 20:04
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 20:04
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 20:05
Bally Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 20:05
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 20:04
Hard Rock Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 20:04
GTbets2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 20:45
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.57%E -5.75%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:05
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -1.47%E -0.577%K -0.948%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -8.57%E -5.75%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 20:45
1xBet2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -3.02%E -1.20%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 20:45
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 20:48
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 20:03
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:39
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:48
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:49
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:49
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:04
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:49
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:49
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 20:05
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 20:50
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.96%E -5.31%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 20:05
DraftKings2.41I 41.49%NM 39.29%EV -6.88%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 20:49
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 20:49
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
betPARX2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
Svenska Spel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 20:49
Betsson2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.89%E -3.16%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 20:50
Fliff2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.19%E -6.21%K -19.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-08 20:49
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 20:50
Unibet (UK)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.20%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.82%E -1.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 20:49
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.20%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 20:50
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.20%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.89%E -3.16%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:49
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.20%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.89%E -3.16%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 20:49
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV -10.36%E -4.46%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 20:50
Caesars2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.44%E -1.53%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 20:48
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.44%E -1.53%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 20:50
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 20:49
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 20:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 20:49
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 20:49
Betclic (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.26%EV -12.29%E -5.41%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 20:50
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -13.06%E -5.81%K -10.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 20:49
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -14.99%E -6.82%K -12.49%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-08 20:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-03-08 20:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.87%1.0%2026-03-08 20:50
Smarkets2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%2.7%2026-03-08 20:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%3.8%2026-03-08 20:50
Matchbook2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%4.3%2026-03-08 20:50
Novig2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.47%9.6%2026-03-08 20:50