Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Marta Kostyuk v Liudmila Samsonova

2026-09-17 23:00 UTC — WTA Guadalajara Open

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Marta Kostyuk (Local)

Predicción 74.86%1.34momio equitativo
EV -0.431%
Ventaja -0.324%
Kelly -1.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.94%74.90%74.78%76.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.261.271.3382.64%79.06%78.74%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante)

Predicción 25.14%3.98momio equitativo
EV +2.30%
Ventaja +0.566%
Kelly +0.751%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.81%25.10%25.22%27.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.723.754.0728.99%26.89%26.67%24.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Marta Kostyuk (Local): 74.86%; Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante): 25.14%. Para Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.98. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.07, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 76.07%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.93%EV +2.30%E +0.566%K +0.751%G +0.017%2.7%2026-09-17 08:40
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.545%E +0.136%K +0.182%G +0.001%5.0%2026-09-17 08:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV +0.294%E +0.074%K +0.098%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-17 08:46
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV +0.294%E +0.074%K +0.098%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-17 08:46
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -1.97%E -0.505%K -0.679%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-17 08:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.97%E -0.505%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 08:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -1.97%E -0.505%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 08:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -1.97%E -0.505%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 08:26
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.23%E -0.838%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 09:01
Fanatics🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.23%E -0.838%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 09:15
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -3.23%E -0.838%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:26
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-17 09:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 08:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 08:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.85%EV -9.41%E -7.78%K -44.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 08:35
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.51%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.49%EV -5.24%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-17 08:35
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-17 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:26
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 07:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:36
Betr (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:35
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.55%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.45%EV -6.49%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 08:35
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-17 07:36
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.92%E -3.88%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-17 07:14
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 04:35
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.25%E -2.26%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 08:31
ReBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.25%E -2.26%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 08:30
GTbets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.19%EV -0.431%E -0.324%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.81%EV -8.76%E -2.41%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-17 07:25
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.52%EV -2.68%E -2.06%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.48%EV -9.26%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-17 06:50
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 07:31
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 07:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 07:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 07:30
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 07:10
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 06:50
TAB🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 08:31
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 08:34
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 08:34
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 07:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 07:16
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -7.17%E -5.78%K -29.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.43%E -2.66%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -12.02%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 04:35
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.02%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 04:30
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.42%E -5.14%K -25.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.02%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 04:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%EV -8.67%E -7.10%K -39.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.02%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-17 08:25
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.28%E -3.85%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 07:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.28%E -3.85%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 07:16
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-09-17 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-09-17 09:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-09-17 09:01
Matchbook1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-09-17 09:01
Novig1.29I 77.52%NM 76.76%4.26I 23.47%NM 23.24%1.0%2026-09-17 09:05
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%3.8%2026-09-17 08:55
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.24%GTbets 1.33 (75.4%) / Pinnacle 4.07 (24.6%)Ver detalles
Marta Kostyuk (Local)Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante)Margen
GTbets🎯 1.33 (75.4%)Pinnacle🎯 4.07 (24.6%)+0.243%