Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katerina Siniakova v Lin Zhu

Kickoff: 2026-06-15 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katerina Siniakova (Local)

Prediction 66.48%1.50fair odd

EV +13.67%

Edge +8.00%

Kelly +19.26%

Growth +2.63%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%66.48%65.71%75.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.401.401.7178.74%71.26%71.43%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lin Zhu (Visit)

Prediction 33.52%2.98fair odd

EV +30.07%

Edge +7.75%

Kelly +10.44%

Growth +3.14%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.66%33.52%34.29%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.902.773.8847.62%34.54%36.04%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katerina Siniakova (Local): 66.48%; Lin Zhu (Visit): 33.52%. For Lin Zhu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.34%EV -15.57%E -12.26%K -57.68%G +0.000%	3.88I 25.77%NM 24.66%EV +30.07%E +7.75%K +10.44%G +3.14%	4.5%	2026-06-15 15:30
ReBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +12.30%E +3.67%K +5.24%G +0.644%	5.0%	2026-06-15 15:30
888sport🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +10.63%E +3.22%K +4.62%G +0.491%	5.5%	2026-06-15 15:30
William Hill🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +10.63%E +3.22%K +4.62%G +0.491%	5.5%	2026-06-15 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +10.63%E +3.22%K +4.62%G +0.491%	5.5%	2026-06-15 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +10.63%E +3.22%K +4.62%G +0.491%	5.5%	2026-06-15 15:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -13.58%E -10.45%K -45.27%G +0.000%	3.14I 31.85%NM 29.28%EV +5.26%E +1.68%K +2.46%G +0.129%	8.8%	2026-06-15 15:49
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.11%E -0.375%K -0.567%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-15 15:48
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.78%E -0.959%K -1.46%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-15 15:48
Bet Victor🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.45%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-15 16:00
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.46%E -1.56%K -2.41%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-06-15 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.13%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-15 16:00
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.61%E -2.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.81%E -2.84%K -4.46%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-15 16:00
FanDuel🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.60%E -3.95%K -13.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.81%E -2.84%K -4.46%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-15 16:00
Fliff🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -8.26%E -5.99%K -21.74%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.81%E -2.84%K -4.46%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-06-15 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.28%E -1.55%K -4.85%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -9.49%E -3.51%K -5.58%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-15 16:00
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.49%E -3.51%K -5.58%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-15 16:00
NordicBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.49%E -3.51%K -5.58%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-15 16:00
Sky Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -11.83%E -4.50%K -7.26%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-15 16:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -11.83%E -4.50%K -7.26%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-15 16:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.17%E -4.64%K -7.51%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-15 16:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -3.61%E -2.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -12.84%E -4.94%K -8.02%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-15 15:50
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -5.60%E -3.95%K -13.34%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -12.84%E -4.94%K -8.02%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-06-15 16:00
Caesars🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +13.67%E +8.00%K +19.26%G +2.63%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -29.60%E -14.10%K -26.91%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-15 15:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%	1.9%	2026-06-15 16:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%	1.9%	2026-06-15 16:01
Smarkets◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%	2.2%	2026-06-15 16:01
Novig◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%	3.9%	2026-06-15 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%	4.2%	2026-06-15 16:01