L’École des cotes

Jessica Pegula v Madison Keys

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-19 10:05 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Prévision 53.31%1.88cote équitable
EV +2.89%
Avantage +1.50%
Kelly +3.11%
Croissance +0.090%

avec la cote maximale 1.93

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.34%53.52%53.44%58.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.731.731.9361.73%57.77%57.97%51.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Madison Keys (Visiteur)

Prévision 46.69%2.14cote équitable
EV +7.38%
Avantage +3.21%
Kelly +5.68%
Croissance +0.419%

avec la cote maximale 2.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.92%46.48%46.56%50.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.862.062.042.3053.76%48.44%48.90%43.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -11.50%E -6.93%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV +7.38%E +3.21%K +5.68%G +0.419%3.7%2026-06-19 08:10
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.78%EV -8.30%E -4.83%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.22%EV +5.51%E +2.44%K +4.38%G +0.241%2.4%2026-06-19 09:00
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -12.03%E -7.29%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV +4.11%E +1.84%K +3.34%G +0.137%5.4%2026-06-19 08:51
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -10.43%E -6.21%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV +3.65%E +1.64%K +2.99%G +0.109%4.6%2026-06-19 08:51
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV +3.18%E +1.44%K +2.63%G +0.083%5.1%2026-06-19 08:10
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%3.9%2026-06-19 08:50
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -9.90%E -5.86%K -14.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%4.6%2026-06-19 07:30
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -10.43%E -6.21%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%5.0%2026-06-19 07:31
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%5.3%2026-06-19 09:09
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%5.3%2026-06-19 07:30
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -12.03%E -7.29%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +2.71%E +1.23%K +2.26%G +0.061%6.1%2026-06-19 09:09
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV +2.24%E +1.03%K +1.89%G +0.042%4.1%2026-06-19 08:50
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV +2.24%E +1.03%K +1.89%G +0.042%4.1%2026-06-19 08:50
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -13.63%E -8.42%K -21.99%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.74%EV +1.31%E +0.604%K +1.12%G +0.015%7.8%2026-06-19 07:30
BetUS1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.90%E -5.86%K -14.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV +0.377%E +0.175%K +0.328%G +0.001%5.7%2026-06-19 08:30
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.377%E +0.175%K +0.328%G +0.001%6.4%2026-06-19 08:10
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.377%E +0.175%K +0.328%G +0.001%6.4%2026-06-19 09:08
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -12.57%E -7.66%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV +0.377%E +0.175%K +0.328%G +0.001%7.5%2026-06-19 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -12.57%E -7.66%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV +0.377%E +0.175%K +0.328%G +0.001%7.5%2026-06-19 07:40
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.24%E -4.16%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:10
Unibet (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-19 09:10
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 08:49
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.37%E -5.51%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 09:10
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.37%E -5.51%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 09:10
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -12.03%E -7.29%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -12.03%E -7.29%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -1.96%E -0.932%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-19 08:59
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -2.89%E -1.39%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-19 09:10
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-19 09:10
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-19 09:10
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-18 21:10
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-19 09:10
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -10.97%E -6.57%K -16.37%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -4.29%E -2.09%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-19 09:09
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -10.43%E -6.21%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-19 09:10
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.17%E -3.51%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 09:10
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.17%E -3.51%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 09:10
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.97%E -1.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 09:10
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.50%E -1.94%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Svenska Spel1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.50%E -1.94%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 09:10
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 09:11
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.04%E -2.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 09:10
Bally Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -6.17%E -3.51%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.70%E -3.83%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-19 09:10
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-19 09:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.77%E -4.49%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.30%E -4.83%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 09:10
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.37%E -5.51%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -7.09%E -3.56%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 09:10
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -8.03%E -4.07%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 09:10
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -5.10%E -2.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -8.03%E -4.07%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.26%EV -8.30%E -4.83%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.74%EV -8.49%E -4.33%K -8.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-19 09:10
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.04%E -2.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.96%E -4.59%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 09:10
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.04%E -2.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.96%E -4.59%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -8.83%E -5.17%K -12.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -8.96%E -4.59%K -9.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-19 09:10
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.83%E -5.67%K -11.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-19 09:11
DraftKings1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV +2.89%E +1.50%K +3.11%G +0.090%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -12.23%E -6.50%K -13.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 09:10
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -8.30%E -4.83%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -12.23%E -6.50%K -13.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-19 09:10
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -2.44%E -1.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -12.70%E -6.79%K -14.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 09:10
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 51.67%EV -7.24%E -4.16%K -9.78%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.33%EV -13.16%E -7.08%K -15.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%0.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-06-19 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-06-19 09:10
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.7%2026-06-19 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%2.4%2026-06-19 09:10
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%5.5%2026-06-19 09:10