Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Victoria Mboko v Katerina Siniakova

Kickoff: 2026-05-28 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Victoria Mboko (Local)

Prediction 61.46%1.63fair odd

EV +4.48%

Edge +2.64%

Kelly +6.40%

Growth +0.287%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.26%61.61%61.64%73.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.511.501.7075.76%66.15%66.67%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Katerina Siniakova (Visit)

Prediction 38.54%2.59fair odd

EV +39.13%

Edge +10.84%

Kelly +14.99%

Growth +5.87%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.77%38.39%38.36%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.492.493.6147.62%40.11%40.16%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Victoria Mboko (Local): 61.46%; Katerina Siniakova (Visit): 38.54%. For Katerina Siniakova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.23%EV -18.87%E -14.30%K -58.98%G +0.000%	3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV +39.13%E +10.84%K +14.99%G +5.87%	3.5%	2026-05-28 18:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -13.96%E -9.97%K -34.89%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +17.55%E +5.75%K +8.56%G +1.50%	4.2%	2026-05-28 18:50
Unibet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.04%E -6.11%K -18.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +2.13%E +0.805%K +1.29%G +0.028%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.04%E -6.11%K -18.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +2.13%E +0.805%K +1.29%G +0.028%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.04%E -6.11%K -18.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +2.13%E +0.805%K +1.29%G +0.028%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.04%E -6.11%K -18.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +2.13%E +0.805%K +1.29%G +0.028%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.04%E -6.11%K -18.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +2.13%E +0.805%K +1.29%G +0.028%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.54%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV +1.36%E +0.518%K +0.836%G +0.011%	6.1%	2026-05-28 18:49
Grosvenor🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -10.88%E -7.51%K -24.19%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +0.207%E +0.080%K +0.129%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-28 18:49
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.35%E -3.48%K -9.91%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.72%E -0.675%K -1.11%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-28 18:47
FanDuel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.72%E -0.675%K -1.11%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-28 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.54%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -1.72%E -0.675%K -1.11%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-28 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -12.11%E -8.47%K -28.17%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -1.72%E -0.675%K -1.11%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-28 18:49
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -12.11%E -8.47%K -28.17%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -1.72%E -0.675%K -1.11%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-28 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.16%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.54%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%EV -2.88%E -1.14%K -1.89%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-28 18:49
Coolbet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.62%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-28 18:49
Casumo🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-28 18:50
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-28 18:50
Caesars🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-28 18:49
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-28 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -13.34%E -9.46%K -32.54%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -3.65%E -1.46%K -2.43%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-05-28 18:49
betPARX🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.35%E -3.48%K -9.91%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.42%E -1.78%K -2.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-28 18:47
TABtouch🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -7.20%E -4.77%K -14.11%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -4.42%E -1.78%K -2.99%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.36%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-28 18:49
Fanatics🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-28 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
Bally Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.81%E -5.21%K -15.62%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -10.27%E -7.03%K -22.33%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -5.57%E -2.28%K -3.84%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-28 18:49
LeoVegas🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 61.99%EV -8.43%E -5.66%K -17.20%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.01%EV -6.35%E -2.61%K -4.44%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-28 18:50
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.36%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.50%E -3.13%K -5.36%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-28 18:50
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.27%E -3.48%K -5.99%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-28 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.27%E -3.48%K -5.99%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-28 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 62.17%EV -12.11%E -8.47%K -28.17%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 37.83%EV -9.43%E -4.01%K -6.98%G +0.000%	12.5%	2026-05-28 18:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.28%E -1.43%K -3.86%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -11.36%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-28 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.51%E -2.24%K -6.16%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.36%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-28 18:50
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.62%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.36%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-28 18:49
BoyleSports🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -0.437%E -0.269%K -0.704%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -13.28%E -5.90%K -10.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-28 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.67%E -1.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -15.21%E -6.91%K -12.67%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-28 18:48
BetMGM🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV +1.41%E +0.853%K +2.16%G +0.030%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -17.14%E -7.97%K -14.90%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-28 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV +4.48%E +2.64%K +6.40%G +0.287%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -19.06%E -9.08%K -17.33%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-28 18:49
Coral🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +2.64%E +1.58%K +3.93%G +0.104%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -19.06%E -9.08%K -17.33%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-28 18:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-05-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-05-28 18:49
Matchbook◎	1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%	2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%	1.6%	2026-05-28 18:50
Novig◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 61.84%	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.16%	2.4%	2026-05-28 18:49
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%	6.2%	2026-05-28 18:50