Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guiomar Maristany v Julie Belgraver

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guiomar Maristany (Local)

Prediction 77.07%1.30fair odd

EV -4.44%

Edge -3.58%

Kelly -18.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.60%77.37%77.07%78.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.221.221.2483.33%82.08%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Julie Belgraver (Visit)

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd

EV +3.42%

Edge +0.759%

Kelly +0.975%

Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.29%22.63%22.93%23.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.164.084.5125.00%24.03%24.51%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guiomar Maristany (Local): 77.07%; Julie Belgraver (Visit): 22.93%. For Julie Belgraver (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.71%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.17%G +0.000%	4.51I 22.17%NM 21.29%EV +3.42%E +0.759%K +0.975%G +0.033%	4.1%	2026-05-19 10:10
PlayUp🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.17%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.39%E -0.324%K -0.422%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-19 10:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.75%E -5.58%K -32.13%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-19 10:10
GTbets🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.60%EV -4.44%E -3.58%K -18.48%G +0.000%	4.06I 24.63%NM 23.40%EV -6.90%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-19 10:07
Betway🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.98%E -4.90%K -27.17%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-19 10:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.52%E -6.27%K -37.59%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-19 10:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.19%	4.41I 22.68%NM 21.81%	4.0%	2026-05-19 10:10