Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kamilla Rakhimova v Maria Sakkari

Inicio: 2026-08-15 21:19 UTC

Final: Kamilla Rakhimova 1–2 Maria Sakkari

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kamilla Rakhimova (Local)

Predicción 37.47%2.67momio equitativo
EV +1.93%
Ventaja +0.709%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.37%37.96%37.35%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.832.542.552.7254.64%39.35%39.22%36.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Maria Sakkari (Visitante)

Predicción 62.53%1.60momio equitativo
EV +14.42%
Ventaja +7.88%
Kelly +17.38%
Crecimiento +2.51%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%62.04%62.65%64.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.511.511.8369.44%66.04%66.23%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kamilla Rakhimova (Local): 37.47%; Maria Sakkari (Visitante): 62.53%. Para Maria Sakkari (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.60. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.83, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +14.42%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -31.42%E -17.17%K -37.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV +14.42%E +7.88%K +17.38%G +2.51%9.3%2026-08-15 21:12
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.78%EV -5.94%E -2.37%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.22%EV -0.584%E -0.367%K -0.989%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 20:50
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 20:29
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.85%EV -8.56%E -3.51%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -3.08%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 20:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.06%E -4.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.08%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 20:14
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.94%E -5.08%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.08%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.94%E -5.08%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.08%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:15
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.71%E -2.41%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 19:18
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.71%E -2.41%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 20:00
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.71%E -2.41%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 19:14
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -8.19%E -3.34%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -3.71%E -2.41%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.44%E -0.549%K -0.885%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.44%E -0.549%K -0.885%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 19:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 21:10
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 21:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:14
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.19%E -3.34%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 19:14
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.06%E -4.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.06%E -4.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 19:14
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:15
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:18
DraftKings🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -3.69%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -4.96%E -3.26%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.96%E -3.26%K -9.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 19:14
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.96%E -3.26%K -9.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 20:15
FanDuel🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -1.82%E -0.694%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 19:14
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:14
ReBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 20:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:14
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 19:14
GTbets🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55%EV +1.93%E +0.709%K +1.12%G +0.022%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.45%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-14 09:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV +1.18%E +0.437%K +0.694%G +0.008%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-14 11:04
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.44%E -0.549%K -0.885%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 19:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.44%E -0.549%K -0.885%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 19:14
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.82%E -0.694%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 19:59
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.57%E -0.987%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.57%E -0.987%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 19:14
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 20:10
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:14
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.06%E -4.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 20:24
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.06%E -4.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 20:22
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -6.84%E -4.59%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 08:49
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
SportsBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%EV -4.07%E -1.59%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.52%EV -8.09%E -5.50%K -17.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:14
Caesars🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -0.694%E -0.262%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -9.34%E -6.44%K -20.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 18:43
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.34%E -6.44%K -20.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 21:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -2.57%E -0.987%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.96%E -6.92%K -22.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-15 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-15 21:15
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-15 21:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-08-15 21:15
ProphetX◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-08-15 21:15
Novig◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.1%2026-08-15 21:15
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%2.9%2026-08-15 21:15