Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elise Mertens v Diane Parry

Inicio: 2026-08-15 21:15 UTC

Final: Elise Mertens 1–2 Diane Parry

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elise Mertens (Local)

Predicción 73.74%1.36momio equitativo
EV -1.93%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -5.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.96%73.64%73.62%75.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.291.291.3380.00%77.39%77.52%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Diane Parry (Visitante)

Predicción 26.26%3.81momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.356%
Kelly +0.481%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.00%26.36%26.38%29.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.563.553.8630.77%28.10%28.17%25.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Elise Mertens (Local): 73.74%; Diane Parry (Visitante): 26.26%. Para Diane Parry (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.81. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.86, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.38%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.81%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.19%EV +1.38%E +0.356%K +0.481%G +0.007%2.8%2026-08-15 20:45
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.201%E -0.053%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 16:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%EV -0.726%E -0.192%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%EV -0.726%E -0.192%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -3.40%E -2.60%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -1.51%E -0.404%K -0.550%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 21:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -1.51%E -0.404%K -0.550%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 11:09
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.83%E -6.26%K -31.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.51%E -0.404%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:13
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.83%E -6.26%K -31.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.51%E -0.404%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:12
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -2.83%E -0.764%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 06:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.83%E -0.764%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 15:10
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.83%E -6.26%K -31.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -2.83%E -0.764%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 16:14
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%EV -1.93%E -1.45%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 09:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 07:24
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 19:39
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 17:00
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.14%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 19:10
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.40%E -2.60%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 21:09
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 13:35
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:39
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 13:42
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 06:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.83%E -6.26%K -31.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 09:39
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.36%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.64%EV -5.98%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 21:55
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.55%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.45%EV -6.50%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 09:39
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.77%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:44
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.77%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:14
ReBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -6.77%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.40%E -2.60%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 09:35
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.40%E -2.60%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 21:10
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:40
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 09:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:40
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:35
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 09:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 13:39
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.08%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 13:39
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.71%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:43
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -5.62%E -4.39%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.71%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.02%E -3.59%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 13:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.02%E -3.59%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 13:39
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.14%E -3.19%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -13.33%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 20:50
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -1.93%E -1.45%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -14.65%E -4.51%K -6.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 16:45
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.65%E -4.51%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 14:59
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.88%E -3.78%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.65%E -4.51%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 15:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-15 20:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-15 20:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-15 20:30
Matchbook◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-15 20:25
ProphetX◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-08-15 20:55
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.76%2.2%2026-08-15 20:39
Novig◎1.29I 77.52%NM 75.24%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.76%3.0%2026-08-15 20:05