Language:English
Xinyu Gao v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Xinyu Gao (Local)
Prediction 5.56%17.99fair odd
EV +37.99%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.606%
assuming max odds 24.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.95%5.68%5.68%9.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0017.1716.7024.8210.00%5.82%5.99%4.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 94.44%1.06fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -3.60%
Kelly -183.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.74%94.32%94.32%96.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100.00%98.69%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xinyu Gao (Local): 5.56%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 94.44%. For Xinyu Gao (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.99. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +37.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 24.82I 4.03%NM 3.95%EV +37.99%E +1.53%K +1.60%G +0.606% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.05%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 05:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +27.87%E +1.21%K +1.27%G +0.353% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-03 03:31 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +27.87%E +1.21%K +1.27%G +0.353% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-03 03:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +27.87%E +1.21%K +1.27%G +0.353% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 06:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +16.76%E +0.798%K +0.838%G +0.140% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-02 11:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +16.76%E +0.798%K +0.838%G +0.140% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 03:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +11.20%E +0.560%K +0.589%G +0.066% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 10:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +11.20%E +0.560%K +0.589%G +0.066% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 10:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +5.64%E +0.297%K +0.313%G +0.018% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 03:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +5.64%E +0.297%K +0.313%G +0.018% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 07:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +5.64%E +0.297%K +0.313%G +0.018% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 07:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +5.64%E +0.297%K +0.313%G +0.018% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 03:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +5.64%E +0.297%K +0.313%G +0.018% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -5.56%E -5.56%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 06:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +0.076%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 02:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -5.48%E -0.323%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-02 22:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -5.48%E -0.323%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-02 22:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -5.48%E -0.323%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -5.48%E -0.323%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 16.70I 5.99%NM 5.70%EV -7.15%E -0.428%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.30%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.04%E -0.690%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.04%E -0.690%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 04:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.04%E -0.690%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 05:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.04%E -0.690%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 02:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -11.04%E -0.690%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 02:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 15.75I 6.35%NM 6.03%EV -12.43%E -0.789%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.97%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 14:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.12%EV -13.82%E -0.892%K -0.953%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.88%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.60%E -1.11%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.60%E -1.11%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 05:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.60%E -1.11%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 00:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.60%E -1.11%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 00:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 14.92I 6.70%NM 6.40%EV -17.05%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.60%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 14:51 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -19.38%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 07:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -20.77%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 15:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -22.16%E -1.58%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 05:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -27.72%E -2.13%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.62%E -4.57%K -461.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 06:03 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -44.40%E -4.44%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 05:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -44.40%E -4.44%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.67%E -3.60%K -183.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 03:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 06:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 06:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 06:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 06:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.32% | 1.8% | 2026-10-03 06:06 |
| Smarkets◎ | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12% | 3.0% | 2026-10-03 06:00 |