Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Donna Vekic v Lin Zhu

2026-10-03 04:00 UTC — WTA China Open

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Donna Vekic (Local)

Predicción 59.98%1.67momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -2.13%
Kelly -5.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.90%59.91%60.18%61.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.561.561.6166.67%64.03%63.90%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lin Zhu (Visitante)

Predicción 40.02%2.50momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.58%40.09%39.82%41.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.402.4245.45%42.36%41.67%41.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Donna Vekic (Local): 59.98%; Lin Zhu (Visitante): 40.02%. Para Lin Zhu (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.50. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.42, con un valor esperado de -3.15%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.43%E -2.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -6.35%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 14:09
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -6.75%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 13:02
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.03%E -2.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 13:00
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.15%E -1.30%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-01 14:59
DraftKings🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 14:55
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -5.55%E -2.35%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.38%EV -5.23%E -3.31%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.62%EV -7.56%E -3.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 15:00
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 14:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 15:04
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:55
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:55
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 15:08
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.75%E -2.00%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 15:00
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.83%E -3.71%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:30
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.43%E -4.12%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-01 15:04
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.03%E -4.54%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.95%E -1.65%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 14:55
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.03%E -4.54%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.15%EV -7.63%E -4.95%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -10.76%E -4.82%K -8.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 15:00
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -8.23%E -5.38%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -10.76%E -4.82%K -8.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-01 15:00
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -8.83%E -5.81%K -16.98%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -3.15%E -1.30%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.83%E -5.81%K -16.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.95%E -2.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.14%EV -8.83%E -5.81%K -16.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -11.96%E -5.44%K -9.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-01 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -9.43%E -6.24%K -18.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -11.96%E -5.44%K -9.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-01 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.32%EV -10.03%E -6.69%K -20.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-01 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%10.0%2026-10-01 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%10.0%2026-10-01 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%10.0%2026-10-01 15:15
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 59.08%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.92%12.1%2026-10-01 15:00
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 58.92%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.08%17.0%2026-10-01 15:10