Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebecca Sramkova v Diana Shnaider

Kickoff: 2026-08-04 18:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebecca Sramkova (Local)

Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV +4.31%
Edge +0.899%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%21.95%21.71%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.254.284.8027.03%23.53%23.39%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diana Shnaider (Visit)

Prediction 78.27%1.28fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -12.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.20%78.05%78.29%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.211.2486.21%82.70%82.64%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rebecca Sramkova (Local): 21.73%; Diana Shnaider (Visit): 78.27%. For Rebecca Sramkova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.31%E +0.899%K +1.14%G +0.049%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 05:39
LowVig.ag4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +0.185%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 10:59
BetOnline.ag4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +0.185%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 11:00
Pinnacle4.58I 21.83%NM 21.17%EV -0.467%E -0.102%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.83%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-04 18:05
1xBet4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -1.34%E -0.294%K -0.378%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:04
DraftKings4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -1.99%E -0.441%K -0.567%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 18:15
Bovada4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 18:04
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 18:13
Coolbet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 18:14
FanDuel4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 18:15
Paddy Power4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 22:55
Dabble (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:14
BetUS4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 13:40
888sport4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.43%E -7.20%K -49.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-04 18:15
William Hill4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.43%E -7.20%K -49.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-04 18:15
Mr Green (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.43%E -7.20%K -49.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-04 18:15
888sport (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.43%E -7.20%K -49.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-04 18:15
Tipico (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -2.21%E -0.490%K -0.630%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -9.21%E -7.94%K -57.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 18:15
Unibet (FR)4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -3.29%E -0.740%K -0.954%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 10:59
LeoVegas4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -3.29%E -0.740%K -0.954%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 18:15
Unibet (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 11:14
ReBet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 15:15
Winamax (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:15
Fanatics4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 18:05
Betr (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 18:13
PlayUp4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.38%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 18:15
betfred_uk4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 23:05
betano_uk4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 18:15
Coral4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 06:20
Ladbrokes (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 06:19
BetMGM4.33I 23.09%NM 21.56%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.44%EV -6.86%E -5.77%K -36.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 18:15
Winamax (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.55%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 18:14
Betway4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 05:19
theScore Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 17:05
SportsBet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 18:15
PointsBet (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 18:15
Fliff4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.64%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -7.64%E -6.48%K -42.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 18:15
BetAnything4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -2.95%E -2.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-04 17:30
Betsson4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 18:15
NordicBet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 18:15
TAB4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 18:14
Caesars4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.08%E -5.07%K -30.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 12:04
Ladbrokes (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 06:20
Neds4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.90%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 06:19
Marathon Bet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -11.99%E -2.96%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -2.95%E -2.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Hard Rock Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.95%E -2.38%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 03:39
Unibet (NL)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
BetRivers4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Unibet (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Unibet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Casumo4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
betPARX4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Svenska Spel4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
ATG (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -3.73%E -3.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.07%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 18:15
TABtouch3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -14.16%E -3.58%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Grosvenor3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -14.16%E -3.58%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Bally Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 18:15
Virgin Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 18:15
LiveScore Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -16.33%E -4.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.39%EV -6.86%E -5.77%K -36.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 18:15
Bet Victor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -18.50%E -4.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 17:59
PMU (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -18.50%E -4.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -8.43%E -7.20%K -49.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-04 18:15
Betclic (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -19.59%E -5.30%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -4.51%E -3.70%K -20.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-04 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%0.5%2026-08-04 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%0.5%2026-08-04 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%0.5%2026-08-04 18:15
Matchbook5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%1.3%2026-08-04 18:15
ProphetX4.85I 20.62%NM 20.23%1.23I 81.30%NM 79.77%1.9%2026-08-04 18:15
Novig4.65I 21.51%NM 20.92%1.23I 81.30%NM 79.08%2.8%2026-08-04 18:15
Smarkets4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%3.5%2026-08-04 18:15