Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari v Zeynep Sonmez

Inicio: 2026-08-05 20:28 UTC

Final: Maria Sakkari 2–0 Zeynep Sonmez

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Sakkari (Local)

Predicción 60.72%1.65momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.630%
Kelly -1.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.22%60.64%60.69%62.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.571.571.6368.03%63.56%63.69%61.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Zeynep Sonmez (Visitante)

Predicción 39.28%2.55momio equitativo
EV +0.164%
Ventaja +0.064%
Kelly +0.106%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.03%39.36%39.31%41.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.382.372.5544.84%42.10%42.19%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Maria Sakkari (Local): 60.72%; Zeynep Sonmez (Visitante): 39.28%. Para Zeynep Sonmez (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.546. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.550, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.164%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +0.164%E +0.064%K +0.106%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 20:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 20:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 20:15
BetAnything🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 15:40
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 20:20
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:20
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:20
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -10.74%E -7.31%K -22.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -1.80%E -0.720%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 03:29
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.85%E -1.78%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -2.98%E -1.21%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-05 20:24
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.24%E -1.39%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:14
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:15
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -8.31%E -5.51%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -3.76%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 20:20
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 20:25
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 20:24
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.85%E -1.78%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 20:15
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:20
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 20:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 20:15
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 13:20
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 20:19
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.12%E -2.56%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 20:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -6.51%E -2.74%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 20:24
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.74%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 19:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.91%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.91%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 20:25
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-05 20:25
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.69%E -3.27%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-05 20:25
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.63%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.63%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 20:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 20:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 20:19
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 20:14
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 20:15
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:15
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.03%E -0.630%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -10.44%E -4.58%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 20:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -2.85%E -1.78%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-05 20:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-08-05 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:25
ProphetX◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:25
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-08-05 20:25
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-08-05 20:25