L’École des cotes

Naomi Osaka v Ekaterina Alexandrova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-25 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Naomi Osaka (Local)

Prévision 56.81%1.76cote équitable
EV +2.26%
Avantage +1.26%
Kelly +2.83%
Croissance +0.064%

avec la cote maximale 1.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.63%56.61%57.47%60.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.511.631.621.8066.23%61.23%61.73%55.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visiteur)

Prévision 43.19%2.32cote équitable
EV +3.65%
Avantage +1.52%
Kelly +2.61%
Croissance +0.095%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.55%43.39%42.53%47.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.222.252.4050.00%45.14%44.44%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.61%G +0.095%3.4%2026-06-25 11:10
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.61%G +0.095%3.4%2026-06-25 11:10
BetAnything1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.61%G +0.095%3.8%2026-06-25 11:00
Unibet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -10.24%E -6.48%K -17.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.61%G +0.095%5.0%2026-06-25 11:10
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -10.80%E -6.88%K -18.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +3.65%E +1.52%K +2.61%G +0.095%5.4%2026-06-25 11:10
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV +1.92%E +0.815%K +1.41%G +0.027%2.3%2026-06-25 11:00
BetUS1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +1.49%E +0.634%K +1.10%G +0.016%4.7%2026-06-25 10:59
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.37%E -7.29%K -20.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +1.49%E +0.634%K +1.10%G +0.016%6.7%2026-06-25 11:10
Coolbet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV +0.627%E +0.269%K +0.471%G +0.003%5.0%2026-06-25 10:59
ReBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV +0.627%E +0.269%K +0.471%G +0.003%5.0%2026-06-25 10:59
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -0.237%E -0.103%K -0.181%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-25 10:59
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -7.40%E -4.54%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -0.669%E -0.291%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-25 10:59
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.669%E -0.291%K -0.514%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 11:09
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.669%E -0.291%K -0.514%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-25 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -11.94%E -7.70%K -21.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -0.669%E -0.291%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-25 11:10
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -13.08%E -8.55%K -24.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.669%E -0.291%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-25 11:10
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.40%E -4.54%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -1.53%E -0.672%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-25 11:05
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -1.53%E -0.672%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-25 11:10
Svenska Spel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -1.53%E -0.672%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-25 11:10
PMU (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.16%EV -14.21%E -9.41%K -27.87%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -1.53%E -0.672%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-25 11:10
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-25 10:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.96%E -4.92%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-25 11:00
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-25 11:08
Betr (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-25 11:00
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-25 11:10
William Hill1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:05
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:04
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:09
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:04
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:04
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -10.24%E -6.48%K -17.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-25 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -10.24%E -6.48%K -17.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-25 11:00
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -10.24%E -6.48%K -17.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-25 11:00
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.80%E -6.88%K -18.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-25 11:10
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.80%E -6.88%K -18.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-25 10:59
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -11.94%E -7.70%K -21.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-25 11:09
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -3.69%E -1.66%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-25 11:10
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:08
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:10
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:10
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:10
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -11.37%E -7.29%K -20.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-25 11:10
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-25 11:10
TABtouch1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-25 11:09
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.15%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-25 11:10
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.15%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-25 11:10
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -7.40%E -4.54%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -7.58%E -3.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-25 11:09
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.558%E +0.315%K +0.725%G +0.004%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-25 11:09
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-25 11:10
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-25 11:10
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -13.64%E -8.98%K -26.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-06-25 11:10
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -0.578%E -0.330%K -0.771%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -9.74%E -4.66%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-25 11:09
DraftKings1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV +1.13%E +0.633%K +1.44%G +0.016%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -11.03%E -5.36%K -10.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-25 11:10
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV +0.558%E +0.315%K +0.725%G +0.004%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 11:10
PointsBet (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -2.28%E -1.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-25 11:09
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-25 11:09
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +2.26%E +1.26%K +2.83%G +0.064%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-25 11:10
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.578%E -0.330%K -0.771%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-25 11:09
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.578%E -0.330%K -0.771%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-25 11:09
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -1.15%E -0.659%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-25 11:09
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-25 11:10
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-25 11:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-06-25 11:10
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%2.6%2026-06-25 11:10
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%2.6%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%4.9%2026-06-25 11:10
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 69.70%2.30I 43.48%NM 30.30%43.5%2026-06-25 11:10