Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Thanasi Kokkinakis
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 88.05%1.14fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -20.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.64%88.02%88.11%89.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.091.1194.34%92.21%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit)
Prediction 11.95%8.37fair odd
EV +14.11%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.233%
assuming max odds 9.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.04%11.98%11.89%14.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.857.709.5515.38%12.74%12.99%10.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 88.05%; Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit): 11.95%. For Thanasi Kokkinakis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.37. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.92%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 9.55I 10.47%NM 10.08%EV +14.11%E +1.48%K +1.65%G +0.233% | 3.9% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +13.51%E +1.42%K +1.59%G +0.215% | 4.0% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -6.67%E -6.29%K -111.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +13.51%E +1.42%K +1.59%G +0.215% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.20%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80%EV +7.53%E +0.837%K +0.942%G +0.071% | 2.9% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.25%EV -6.67%E -6.29%K -111.09%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.75%EV +5.15%E +0.585%K +0.660%G +0.034% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.63%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +1.56%E +0.184%K +0.208%G +0.003% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.49%EV -4.90%E -4.54%K -61.30%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.51%EV -0.829%E -0.100%K -0.114%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.90%E -4.54%K -61.30%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.41%E -0.552%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.90%E -4.54%K -61.30%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.41%E -0.552%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.90%E -4.54%K -61.30%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.41%E -0.552%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.41%E -0.552%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.41%E -0.552%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.64%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.36%EV -6.80%E -0.872%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.60%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.40%EV -8.00%E -1.04%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.72%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 7.64I 13.09%NM 12.28%EV -8.71%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.72%EV -5.78%E -5.41%K -82.64%G +0.000% | 7.64I 13.09%NM 12.28%EV -8.71%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -9.19%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 15:43 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.03%EV -2.26%E -2.04%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 7.45I 13.42%NM 12.97%EV -10.99%E -1.47%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-01 15:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -12.78%E -1.75%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 15:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.85%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -13.97%E -1.94%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 06:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 06:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 06:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.14%E -2.86%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 06:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 15:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -4.90%E -4.54%K -61.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -16.36%E -2.34%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -4.02%E -3.69%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -22.34%E -3.44%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.15% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85% | 1.3% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.75% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 2.0% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.66% | 2.5% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.01% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.99% | 2.6% | 2026-09-01 15:35 |