Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys v Facundo Diaz Acosta

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 22:06 UTC

Final: Quentin Halys 3–1 Facundo Diaz Acosta

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys (Local)

Prediction 72.39%1.38fair odd
EV +0.618%
Edge +0.445%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.62%72.28%72.49%74.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.301.3978.74%76.32%76.92%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Facundo Diaz Acosta (Visit)

Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +0.946%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.72%27.51%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.043.433.453.7532.89%29.19%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Quentin Halys (Local): 72.39%; Facundo Diaz Acosta (Visit): 27.61%. For Facundo Diaz Acosta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -5.17%E -3.95%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +3.55%E +0.946%K +1.29%G +0.046%3.0%2026-08-31 21:49
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.13%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.87%EV -0.041%E -0.011%K -0.016%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-31 22:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -0.593%E -0.165%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -0.593%E -0.165%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 20:15
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -1.42%E -0.398%K -0.553%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 21:49
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.17%E -3.95%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -1.97%E -0.556%K -0.774%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-31 21:45
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.17%E -3.95%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 21:50
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:11
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:50
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 17:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:10
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 20:15
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:50
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.62%E -5.13%K -22.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 17:45
ReBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -4.46%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-31 21:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.62%E -5.13%K -22.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.07%E -6.35%K -29.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.17%E -3.95%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -5.56%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58%EV -2.28%E -1.69%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 16:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.17%E -3.95%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 17:45
GTbets🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 19:10
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 17:45
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 21:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 14:55
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.62%E -5.13%K -22.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-28 14:26
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.00%E -2.24%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-31 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 17:45
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 17:45
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.34%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.66%EV -8.60%E -2.60%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 22:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.28%E -1.69%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-31 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.00%E -2.24%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 22:00
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.18%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.82%EV -9.98%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.18%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.82%EV -9.98%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 21:50
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 22:00
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 21:50
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -1.55%E -1.14%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 22:04
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 22:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.11%EV -7.34%E -5.74%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 22:04
Fliff🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -14.40%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 22:05
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV +0.618%E +0.445%K +1.58%G +0.010%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -16.06%E -5.28%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-08-31 22:06
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-08-31 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-08-31 22:00
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-08-31 22:05
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.2%2026-08-31 22:00
ProphetX1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33%1.3%2026-08-31 22:00
Novig1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59%1.7%2026-08-31 21:40
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%2.4%2026-08-31 22:00