Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Michael Zheng v Arthur Gea

Início: 2026-09-05 21:00 UTC

Final: Michael Zheng 2–3 Arthur Gea

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Michael Zheng (Local)

Previsão 57.07%1.75odd justa
EV -1.84%
Vantagem -1.07%
Kelly -2.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.72

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
55.90%57.10%57.14%58.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.581.661.671.7263.29%60.26%59.88%58.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Gea (Visitante)

Previsão 42.93%2.33odd justa
EV +0.028%
Vantagem +0.012%
Kelly +0.021%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.16%42.90%42.86%44.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.202.202.3348.78%45.46%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Michael Zheng (Local): 57.07%; Arthur Gea (Visitante): 42.93%. Para Arthur Gea (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.329. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.330, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.028%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -6.98%E -4.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV +0.028%E +0.012%K +0.021%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 07:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.26%E -0.548%K -0.969%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 07:10
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -2.98%E -1.75%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -2.55%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 09:05
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -2.41%E -1.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.98%E -1.32%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-04 14:15
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -5.26%E -3.17%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -2.98%E -1.32%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 08:40
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.41%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 10:55
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.41%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 07:41
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.41%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.12%E -2.32%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 08:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.12%E -2.32%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:35
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.15%EV -5.12%E -2.32%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 07:40
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.98%E -1.75%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 09:05
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:40
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:30
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:55
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:34
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:35
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 13:53
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 08:45
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 08:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 09:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 09:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.26%E -3.17%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 10:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.26%E -3.17%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 07:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 10:15
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 07:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 07:40
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.41%E -3.91%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:30
Betsson🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.41%E -3.91%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 07:30
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 07:30
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 07:25
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 11:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -1.84%E -1.07%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.41%E -2.94%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 12:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -1.84%E -1.07%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.41%E -2.94%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 12:15
BetUS🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.84%E -3.15%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 13:17
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 07:30
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:05
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -6.98%E -4.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 07:34
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 07:30
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.03%EV -9.26%E -5.82%K -15.69%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.97%EV -9.42%E -4.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 07:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.83%E -6.22%K -16.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.99%E -5.85%K -11.42%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 07:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-09-04 13:15
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%2.4%2026-09-04 14:00