Idioma:Español
Jesper De Jong v Francesco Passaro
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Jesper De Jong (Local)
Predicción 56.73%1.76momio equitativo
EV -1.86%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -2.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.83%56.61%56.81%58.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.681.681.7360.98%59.50%59.52%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Francesco Passaro (Visitante)
Predicción 43.27%2.31momio equitativo
EV -0.471%
Ventaja -0.205%
Kelly -0.363%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.92%43.39%43.19%45.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.192.182.3047.62%45.74%45.87%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Jesper De Jong (Local): 56.73%; Francesco Passaro (Visitante): 43.27%. Para Francesco Passaro (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.31. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.30, con un valor esperado de -0.471%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -1.86%E -1.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 20:03 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.86%E -1.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.13%E -4.35%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 12:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.86%E -1.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.13%E -4.35%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 12:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.86%E -1.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.13%E -4.35%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 12:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.86%E -1.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.13%E -4.35%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 12:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -4.37%E -1.98%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 19:51 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.00%E -1.75%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.56%E -2.10%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -1.77%E -0.780%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-01 19:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.56%E -2.10%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -2.63%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-01 20:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.56%E -2.10%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 09:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.56%E -2.10%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.56%E -2.10%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.07%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -8.26%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.64%EV -4.13%E -2.44%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.36%EV -8.26%E -3.90%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -0.471%E -0.205%K -0.363%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 19:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.63%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-01 20:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-01 20:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -3.93%E -1.77%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 15:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.63%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 19:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 15:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 16:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.23%E -2.39%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.23%E -2.39%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 20:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.27%E -3.15%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 06:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -5.83%E -3.51%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -0.471%E -0.205%K -0.363%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -5.83%E -3.51%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -2.63%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.63%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -3.93%E -1.77%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 19:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -6.10%E -2.81%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.61%EV -6.97%E -4.25%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%EV -7.40%E -3.46%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.9% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54% | 2.4% | 2026-09-01 20:45 |