Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

James Duckworth v Wu Yibing

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

James Duckworth (Local)

Predicción 43.35%2.31momio equitativo
EV +3.16%
Ventaja +1.33%
Kelly +2.29%
Crecimiento +0.073%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.50%43.14%43.42%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.202.202.3848.78%45.44%45.45%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wu Yibing (Visitante)

Predicción 56.65%1.77momio equitativo
EV -3.69%
Ventaja -2.17%
Kelly -5.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.14%56.86%56.58%59.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.661.661.7062.50%60.29%60.24%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: James Duckworth (Local): 43.35%; Wu Yibing (Visitante): 56.65%. Para James Duckworth (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.31. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.38, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.16%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV +3.16%E +1.33%K +2.29%G +0.073%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -8.22%E -5.07%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 04:25
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -1.60%E -0.706%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-01 04:55
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -1.60%E -0.706%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 04:05
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 01:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.47%E -1.10%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 01:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.34%E -1.50%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 00:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.69%E -2.17%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-31 23:20
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.26%E -2.52%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 23:20
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 00:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 23:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 23:25
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 23:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 23:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 23:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.96%E -3.59%K -9.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 23:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-31 23:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.64%E -2.11%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.22%E -5.07%K -13.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 23:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -5.50%E -2.53%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -8.22%E -5.07%K -13.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 00:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -5.94%E -2.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 23:24
DraftKings🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.37%E -2.95%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 23:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.80%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.82%E -2.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 04:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.80%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.39%E -3.23%K -8.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 23:30
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 23:25
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.80%E -3.17%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 03:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -7.24%E -3.38%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 23:20
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.11%E -3.82%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.52%E -3.95%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-31 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.78%EV -9.84%E -4.73%K -9.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.22%EV -8.22%E -5.07%K -13.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 23:30
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.78%EV -9.84%E -4.73%K -9.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.22%EV -8.22%E -5.07%K -13.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 23:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.14%E -5.43%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.35%E -5.85%K -15.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 04:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%4.2%2026-09-01 05:10
ProphetX2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%5.3%2026-09-01 02:15
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%5.7%2026-09-01 05:15
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%9.7%2026-09-01 02:50
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 44.20%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%12.0%2026-08-31 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%12.6%2026-09-01 02:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%12.6%2026-09-01 02:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%12.6%2026-09-01 02:45