Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bu Yunchaokete v Michael Zheng

Inicio: 2026-09-03 23:28 UTC

Final: Bu Yunchaokete 1–3 Michael Zheng

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bu Yunchaokete (Local)

Predicción 37.55%2.66momio equitativo
EV -0.482%
Ventaja -0.182%
Kelly -0.292%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.41%37.59%37.53%39.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.412.532.532.6541.49%39.57%39.53%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Michael Zheng (Visitante)

Predicción 62.45%1.60momio equitativo
EV -2.58%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -4.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.71%62.41%62.47%63.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.521.521.5668.03%65.83%65.79%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Bu Yunchaokete (Local): 37.55%; Michael Zheng (Visitante): 62.45%. Para Bu Yunchaokete (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.66. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.65, con un valor esperado de -0.482%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -0.482%E -0.182%K -0.292%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-03 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -0.482%E -0.182%K -0.292%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-03 23:20
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.61%E -0.614%K -0.993%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.36%E -0.908%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.21%E -2.07%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 17:25
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.59%EV -2.74%E -1.06%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.41%EV -2.58%E -1.66%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-03 23:15
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.11%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 23:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 22:40
ReBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 20:15
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 18:45
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 21:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 10:15
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -4.61%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.72%EV -5.71%E -3.78%K -11.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 23:15
BetMGM🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -4.61%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -4.99%E -1.97%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.36%E -2.13%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 21:29
MyBookie.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.36%E -2.13%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 18:44
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.58%E -1.66%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 15:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.21%E -2.07%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 22:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.83%E -2.49%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 11:55
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:15
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 05:24
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:15
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 18:45
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:15
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 21:30
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 21:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 19:55
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 18:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.71%E -3.78%K -11.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:45
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 21:48
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 23:02
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.33%E -4.22%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 11:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.58%E -5.12%K -15.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.58%E -5.12%K -15.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.20%E -5.58%K -17.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 21:35
NordicBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -7.24%E -2.93%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 18:45
Betsson🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -7.24%E -2.93%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.08%E -3.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.94%EV -7.24%E -2.93%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.06%EV -5.71%E -3.78%K -11.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.99%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 23:20
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.99%E -3.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.46%E -2.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 19:40
DraftKings🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.29%EV -9.49%E -3.94%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -2.58%E -1.66%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 08:21
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17%0.5%2026-09-03 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-09-03 23:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-09-03 23:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-09-03 23:25
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-09-03 23:26
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-09-03 15:35
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-09-03 23:10
ProphetX◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-09-03 23:26