Language:English
Benjamin Bonzi v Ignacio Buse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Benjamin Bonzi (Local)
Prediction 47.64%2.10fair odd
EV +7.19%
Edge +3.19%
Kelly +5.75%
Growth +0.413%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%47.49%47.63%49.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.2552.36%50.30%50.00%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ignacio Buse (Visit)
Prediction 52.36%1.91fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%52.51%52.37%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.811.811.8659.88%55.25%55.25%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 47.64%; Ignacio Buse (Visit): 52.36%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV +7.19%E +3.19%K +5.75%G +0.413% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -12.56%E -7.52%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 03:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -2.34%E -1.14%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -2.61%E -1.40%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -3.29%E -1.62%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 20:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 20:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -8.37%E -4.78%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 20:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 15:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 15:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.83%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 20:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.83%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 20:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.65%E -1.99%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 15:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 16:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.70%E -2.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 15:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 19:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 16:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 18:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 20:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -5.20%E -2.61%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 20:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -5.20%E -2.61%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 16:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 16:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.70%E -2.58%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 17:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -8.53%E -4.45%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -2.61%E -1.40%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 17:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 15:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 15:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 17:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 0.4% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.09I 47.85%NM 47.36% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.64% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 20:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |