Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benjamin Bonzi v Ignacio Buse

Início: 2026-09-03 21:01 UTC

Final: Benjamin Bonzi 3–0 Ignacio Buse

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benjamin Bonzi (Local)

Previsão 47.64%2.10odd justa
EV +7.19%
Vantagem +3.19%
Kelly +5.75%
Crescimento +0.413%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.60%47.49%47.63%49.21%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.911.992.002.2552.36%50.30%50.00%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ignacio Buse (Visitante)

Previsão 52.36%1.91odd justa
EV -2.61%
Vantagem -1.40%
Kelly -3.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.86

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.79%52.51%52.37%57.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.671.811.811.8659.88%55.25%55.25%53.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 47.64%; Ignacio Buse (Visitante): 52.36%. Para Benjamin Bonzi (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.10. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.19%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV +7.19%E +3.19%K +5.75%G +0.413%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -12.56%E -7.52%K -18.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 03:40
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV -2.34%E -1.14%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -2.61%E -1.40%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-03 20:00
ReBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -3.29%E -1.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 18:09
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 20:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 20:39
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -3.77%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -8.37%E -4.78%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 20:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:45
MyBookie.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:50
Betsson🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.83%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 20:35
NordicBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.83%EV -4.25%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 20:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.65%E -1.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 15:45
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 20:25
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.70%E -2.58%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 15:49
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 20:00
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 15:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 19:59
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 16:10
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 20:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 20:50
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -5.20%E -2.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 20:35
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.21%EV -5.20%E -2.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.79%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:05
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:05
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.70%E -2.58%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.15%E -3.12%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 17:20
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 17:20
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.13%E -1.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 19:15
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:59
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:20
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.11%E -3.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 17:25
DraftKings🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -8.53%E -4.45%K -9.28%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -2.61%E -1.40%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 17:19
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:45
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:45
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 17:20
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 17:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-09-03 20:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-09-03 20:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-09-03 20:50
Novig◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25%0.4%2026-09-03 20:50
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%0.5%2026-09-03 20:50
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-09-03 20:50
ProphetX◎2.09I 47.85%NM 47.36%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.64%1.0%2026-09-03 20:45
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%2.0%2026-09-03 20:50