Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ben Shelton v Hubert Hurkacz

Inicio: 2026-09-02 17:08 UTC

Final: Ben Shelton 3–1 Hubert Hurkacz

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ben Shelton (Local)

Predicción 67.77%1.48momio equitativo
EV -3.09%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -7.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.27%67.76%67.76%68.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.361.411.401.4373.53%71.08%71.43%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante)

Predicción 32.23%3.10momio equitativo
EV -0.075%
Ventaja -0.024%
Kelly -0.035%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.19%32.24%32.24%33.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.912.903.1036.36%34.38%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ben Shelton (Local): 67.77%; Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante): 32.23%. Para Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.102. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.100, con un valor esperado de -0.075%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%EV -3.09%E -2.16%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%EV -0.075%E -0.024%K -0.035%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-02 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.09%E -2.16%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 15:50
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.823%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-02 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:42
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 06:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 15:45
ReBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.80%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -3.62%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 14:40
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 15:49
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-01 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 16:00
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.77%E -2.66%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 14:00
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.45%E -3.16%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.01%E -0.661%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 17:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.45%E -3.16%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 06:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.45%E -3.16%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.45%E -3.16%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 16:59
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 10:15
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 16:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 10:40
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 06:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.91%E -1.66%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 09:40
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 15:05
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:55
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 15:45
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 06:35
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 14:00
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 10:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 16:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.49%E -2.61%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.49%E -2.61%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.74%E -3.48%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 16:00
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:55
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.13%E -3.66%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.81%E -4.18%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.69%E -0.553%K -0.823%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 06:40
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -5.81%E -4.18%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -2.33%E -0.769%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 10:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.81%E -4.18%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.81%E -4.18%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 06:35
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.81%E -4.18%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 06:40
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -6.48%E -4.70%K -17.06%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -3.62%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-02 04:15
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.48%E -4.70%K -17.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.52%E -2.25%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 08:00
Fliff🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -6.48%E -4.70%K -17.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.13%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.16%E -5.23%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 16:45
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.84%E -5.76%K -21.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 06:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-09-02 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-09-02 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-09-02 17:05
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-09-02 17:05
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75%1.0%2026-09-02 17:05
ProphetX◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-09-02 17:05
Novig◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-09-02 17:05
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%2.7%2026-09-02 17:00