A Escola das Oddsodds.tennis
Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Novo modeloTodos os modelos

Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida Aguilar

Início: 2026-09-04 20:30 UTC

Final: Alex Michelsen 3–0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alex Michelsen (Local)

Previsão 62.64%1.60odd justa
EV -2.29%
Vantagem -1.47%
Kelly -4.09%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.56

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
60.10%62.60%62.65%64.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.451.521.531.5668.97%65.80%65.36%64.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)

Previsão 37.36%2.68odd justa
EV -0.237%
Vantagem -0.089%
Kelly -0.142%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.67

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.80%37.40%37.35%39.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.352.532.502.6742.55%39.47%40.00%37.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alex Michelsen (Local): 62.64%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante): 37.36%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.68. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.67, com valor esperado de -0.237%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.29%E -1.47%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -12.19%E -5.19%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 21:33
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 12:55
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -0.237%E -0.089%K -0.142%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 13:00
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.96%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 13:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 13:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 13:23
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.60%E -1.40%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 13:24
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 12:50
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:50
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:50
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 11:50
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 13:25
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -2.11%E -0.804%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:25
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:30
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 11:15
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 13:55
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.72%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 13:05
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 08:37
Betr (AU)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:15
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -1.36%E -0.515%K -0.828%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 11:20
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 11:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 11:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 13:30
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.69%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:55
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:25
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:25
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:40
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 11:54
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 11:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 13:04
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.18%E -6.33%K -20.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-09-04 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-09-04 13:50
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-09-04 13:50
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-09-04 00:10
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-09-04 14:31
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%2.4%2026-09-04 13:50