Langue:Français
Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prévision 62.64%1.60cote équitable
EV -2.29%
Avantage -1.47%
Kelly -4.09%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.56
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.10%62.60%62.65%64.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.451.521.531.5668.97%65.80%65.36%64.10%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur)
Prévision 37.36%2.68cote équitable
EV -0.237%
Avantage -0.089%
Kelly -0.142%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.67
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.80%37.40%37.35%39.90%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.352.532.502.6742.55%39.47%40.00%37.45%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Alex Michelsen (Local) : 62.64% ; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur) : 37.36%. Pour Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.68. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 2.67, pour une espérance de -0.237% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.
Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.29%E -1.47%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -12.19%E -5.19%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 21:33 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -0.237%E -0.089%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.96%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 08:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:23 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.60%E -1.40%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 13:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -2.11%E -0.804%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.72%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:37 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -1.36%E -0.515%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 11:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.69%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 11:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.18%E -6.33%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (8)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |