Lingua:Italiano
Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →
Testa a testa
Alex Michelsen (Casa)
Previsione 62.64%1.60quota equa
EV -2.29%
Vantaggio -1.47%
Kelly -4.09%
Crescita +0.000%
ipotizzando la quota massima 1.56
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
60.10%62.60%62.65%64.20%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.451.521.531.5668.97%65.80%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta)
Previsione 37.36%2.68quota equa
EV -0.237%
Vantaggio -0.089%
Kelly -0.142%
Crescita +0.000%
ipotizzando la quota massima 2.67
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
35.80%37.40%37.35%39.90%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.352.532.502.6742.55%39.47%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Alex Michelsen (Casa): 62.64%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta): 37.36%. Per Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 2.68. Nessun bookmaker idoneo offriva una quota di chiusura superiore a tale livello: la migliore era 2.67, con un valore atteso del -0.237%; non produceva valore atteso positivo.
Quote dei bookmaker (64 bookmaker)
Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.
| Bookmaker | Casa ▼ | Trasferta | Margine | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -2.29%E -1.47%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -12.19%E -5.19%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 21:33 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.91%E -1.88%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -0.237%E -0.089%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.54%E -2.30%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.96%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 08:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 13:23 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.60%E -1.40%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 13:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -2.11%E -0.804%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.79%E -3.15%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.985%E -0.372%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.72%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 08:37 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.42%E -3.59%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -1.36%E -0.515%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 11:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.72%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -5.09%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.69%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -5.84%E -2.32%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -6.22%E -2.48%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 11:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.73%E -0.659%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.67%E -4.48%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.46%E -3.45%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 13:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.93%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.18%E -6.33%K -20.40%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.85%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale
Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.
Borse di scommesse (8)
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta | Margine ▲ | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |