默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Casper Ruud v Carlos Alcaraz

开赛时间： 2026-11-07 16:23 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

63 家博彩公司 (20 家纳入分析 )

20%

80%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Casper Ruud (主队)

预测 19.79%5.05公平赔率

EV +8.86%

优势 +1.61%

Kelly +1.97%

增长率 +0.175%

假设最高赔率为 5.50

博彩公司预测分布

17.29%19.86%19.77%21.79%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

4.204.694.755.5023.81%21.30%21.05%18.18%最小值均值中位数最大值

Carlos Alcaraz (客队)

预测 80.21%1.25公平赔率

EV -2.95%

优势 -2.44%

Kelly -14.05%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.21

博彩公司预测分布

78.21%80.14%80.23%82.71%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.121.191.191.2189.29%84.38%84.03%82.64%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Casper Ruud (主队)：19.79%；Carlos Alcaraz (客队)：80.21%。对于“Casper Ruud (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.05。当时有4家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为5.50，对应+8.86%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (63 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
SportsBet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +8.86%E +1.61%K +1.97%G +0.175%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.76%E -6.75%K -51.75%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-07 15:50
FanDuel🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +6.89%E +1.28%K +1.56%G +0.108%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 15:49
Pinnacle🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%EV +2.93%E +0.563%K +0.697%G +0.020%	1.20I 83.33%NM 81.25%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-07 16:00
Winamax (DE)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +0.947%E +0.186%K +0.231%G +0.002%	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-11-07 16:00
Coolbet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-07 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetMGM🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 16:00
Bovada🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:55
theScore Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
Sky Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 16:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-07 01:25
Paddy Power🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.56%E -7.51%K -61.18%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-11-07 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -10.17%E -9.08%K -84.74%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-07 10:49
ReBet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.01%E -0.615%K -0.772%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-07 15:50
NetBet (FR)🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -3.01%E -0.615%K -0.772%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -9.37%E -8.29%K -72.05%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-11-07 15:45
Fanatics🎯	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -4.00%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 09:44
1xBet🎯	4.82I 20.75%NM 19.93%EV -4.59%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.07%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-07 15:55
DraftKings🎯	4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%EV -4.79%E -0.996%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.17%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-07 10:25
Betsson🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 09:45
NordicBet🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 09:45
picklebet_au🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetAnything🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Coral🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Fliff🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Bet Right🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-07 15:45
LeoVegas🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-07 15:55
Neds🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
GTbets🎯	4.74I 21.10%NM 19.80%EV -6.18%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.20%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-11-07 09:45
Betr (AU)🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -6.97%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-07 15:45
PlayUp🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.95%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-07 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 10:05
888sport🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
William Hill🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:49
Betway🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:55
BoyleSports🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 02:40
888sport (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-07 00:19
Betclic (FR)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.93%EV -9.37%E -8.29%K -72.05%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-11-07 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Casumo🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Grosvenor🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
TABtouch🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Unibet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
BetRivers🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
betPARX🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Bally Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
TAB🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
betano_uk🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-07 15:49
Bet Victor🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-07 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -14.89%E -3.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 78.75%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -16.87%E -4.02%K -5.27%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-07 15:50

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (7)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Novig◎	5.71I 17.51%NM 17.37%	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.63%	0.8%	2026-11-07 16:01
ProphetX◎	5.65I 17.70%NM 17.52%	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.48%	1.0%	2026-11-07 16:00
Smarkets◎	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53%	1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47%	1.9%	2026-11-07 16:00
Matchbook◎	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%	2.9%	2026-11-07 15:55

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