Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Casper Ruud v Carlos Alcaraz

Coup d’envoi : 2026-11-07 16:23 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

20%

80%

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Casper Ruud (Local)

Prévision 19.79%5.05cote équitable

EV +8.86%

Avantage +1.61%

Kelly +1.97%

Croissance +0.175%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs

17.29%19.86%19.77%21.79%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Distribution des cotes

4.204.694.755.5023.81%21.30%21.05%18.18%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur)

Prévision 80.21%1.25cote équitable

EV -2.95%

Avantage -2.44%

Kelly -14.05%

Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.21

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs

78.21%80.14%80.23%82.71%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Distribution des cotes

1.121.191.191.2189.29%84.38%84.03%82.64%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Casper Ruud (Local) : 19.79% ; Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur) : 80.21%. Pour Casper Ruud (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 5.05. 4 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.50, soit une espérance positive de +8.86%.

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

Opérateur	Local ▼	Visiteur	Marge	Mise à jour
SportsBet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +8.86%E +1.61%K +1.97%G +0.175%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.76%E -6.75%K -51.75%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-07 15:50
FanDuel🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +6.89%E +1.28%K +1.56%G +0.108%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 15:49
Pinnacle🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75%EV +2.93%E +0.563%K +0.697%G +0.020%	1.20I 83.33%NM 81.25%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-07 16:00
Winamax (DE)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +0.947%E +0.186%K +0.231%G +0.002%	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-11-07 16:00
Coolbet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-07 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetMGM🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 16:00
Bovada🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:55
theScore Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
Sky Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 16:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-07 01:25
Paddy Power🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.56%E -7.51%K -61.18%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-11-07 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -1.03%E -0.206%K -0.258%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -10.17%E -9.08%K -84.74%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-07 10:49
ReBet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.01%E -0.615%K -0.772%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-07 15:50
NetBet (FR)🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -3.01%E -0.615%K -0.772%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -9.37%E -8.29%K -72.05%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-11-07 15:45
Fanatics🎯	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -4.00%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-07 09:44
1xBet🎯	4.82I 20.75%NM 19.93%EV -4.59%E -0.953%K -1.20%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.07%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-07 15:55
DraftKings🎯	4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%EV -4.79%E -0.996%K -1.26%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.17%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-07 10:25
Betsson🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 09:45
NordicBet🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 09:45
picklebet_au🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:50
BetAnything🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Coral🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Fliff🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -4.99%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-07 16:00
Bet Right🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-07 15:45
LeoVegas🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-07 15:55
Neds🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.98%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
GTbets🎯	4.74I 21.10%NM 19.80%EV -6.18%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.20%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-11-07 09:45
Betr (AU)🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -6.97%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-07 15:45
PlayUp🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.95%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.55%E -3.83%K -23.97%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-07 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-11-07 10:05
888sport🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
William Hill🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:49
Betway🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 15:55
BoyleSports🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 02:40
888sport (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.75%E -3.13%K -18.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-11-07 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-07 00:19
Betclic (FR)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -10.93%E -2.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.93%EV -9.37%E -8.29%K -72.05%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-11-07 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Casumo🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Grosvenor🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
TABtouch🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Unibet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
BetRivers🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
betPARX🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
Bally Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.95%E -2.44%K -14.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-07 10:05
TAB🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -12.91%E -2.93%K -3.80%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-07 15:50
betano_uk🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-07 15:49
Bet Victor🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -14.29%E -3.30%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.36%E -4.54%K -29.76%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-07 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -14.89%E -3.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 78.75%EV -6.96%E -6.00%K -43.50%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-11-07 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -16.87%E -4.02%K -5.27%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -6.16%E -5.26%K -36.23%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-07 15:50

Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

Opérateur	Local	Visiteur	Marge ▲	Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.51%	1.21I 82.64%NM 82.49%	0.2%	2026-11-07 16:00
Novig◎	5.71I 17.51%NM 17.37%	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.63%	0.8%	2026-11-07 16:01
ProphetX◎	5.65I 17.70%NM 17.52%	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.48%	1.0%	2026-11-07 16:00
Smarkets◎	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53%	1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47%	1.9%	2026-11-07 16:00
Matchbook◎	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%	2.9%	2026-11-07 15:55

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