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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Alex Molcan v Taylor Fritz

2026-11-04 13:50 UTC — ATP Paris Masters

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alex Molcan (Local)

Predicción 22.90%4.37momio equitativo
EV +5.33%
Ventaja +1.16%
Kelly +1.48%
Crecimiento +0.079%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.69%22.90%22.93%25.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.454.084.004.6028.99%24.54%25.00%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Taylor Fritz (Visitante)

Predicción 77.10%1.30momio equitativo
EV -2.08%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -7.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
74.51%77.10%77.07%79.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.181.231.241.2784.75%81.48%80.65%78.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Alex Molcan (Local): 22.90%; Taylor Fritz (Visitante): 77.10%. Para Alex Molcan (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.37. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.60, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.33%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.33%E +1.16%K +1.48%G +0.079%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-03 23:00
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +3.04%E +0.677%K +0.870%G +0.026%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-03 23:00
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +3.04%E +0.677%K +0.870%G +0.026%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-03 23:00
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +3.04%E +0.677%K +0.870%G +0.026%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-03 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +0.754%E +0.171%K +0.222%G +0.002%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-03 23:15
Pinnacle🎯4.38I 22.83%NM 22.06%EV +0.296%E +0.068%K +0.088%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.94%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-04 01:35
DraftKings🎯4.38I 22.83%NM 21.79%EV +0.296%E +0.068%K +0.088%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.21%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-04 01:14
Coolbet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.391%E -0.090%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -3.62%E -2.90%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-04 00:54
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -1.54%E -0.357%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.02%E -7.64%K -50.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 22:55
GTbets🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.88%EV -1.99%E -0.466%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.12%EV -2.08%E -1.64%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-03 23:15
LowVig.ag🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.46%EV -1.99%E -0.466%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.54%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-04 01:39
BetOnline.ag🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.46%EV -1.99%E -0.466%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.54%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-04 01:40
Bovada🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.68%E -0.631%K -0.825%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-03 23:06
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.68%E -0.631%K -0.825%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-03 21:00
Betsson🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.83%E -0.911%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.17%E -4.20%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-03 23:15
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.83%E -0.911%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.17%E -4.20%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-03 23:15
Fanatics🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -4.97%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-03 23:15
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-04 01:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-03 22:55
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-04 01:14
theScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.12%E -1.49%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.71%E -5.54%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-03 22:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -7.26%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.17%E -4.20%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-04 00:54
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.62%E -2.90%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-04 00:54
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.62%E -2.90%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-04 00:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.62%E -2.90%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-04 00:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.62%E -2.90%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-04 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 01:20
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:54
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:54
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:54
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.39%E -3.54%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 00:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-04 01:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-04 01:15
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-04 01:15
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-04 01:15
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-04 01:00
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.41%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-03 22:44
picklebet_au🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.55%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-03 23:15
ReBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.55%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -6.71%E -5.54%K -31.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 23:15
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.55%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-04 01:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -9.55%E -2.42%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -8.25%E -6.93%K -43.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -10.69%E -2.74%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -6.71%E -5.54%K -31.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-03 23:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -12.98%E -3.42%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-04 00:54
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.13%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Bet Victor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.13%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.94%E -4.87%K -26.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-04 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -14.13%E -3.77%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -7.48%E -6.23%K -37.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-03 23:08
Unibet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.49%EV -21.00%E -6.09%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 74.51%EV -9.02%E -7.64%K -50.11%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-03 23:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎4.65I 21.51%NM 21.32%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.68%0.9%2026-11-04 01:30
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%1.6%2026-11-04 01:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%2.1%2026-11-04 01:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%2.1%2026-11-04 01:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%2.1%2026-11-04 01:15
ProphetX◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%2.7%2026-11-04 01:30
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%3.4%2026-11-04 01:15