Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.68
assuming max odds 1.26
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 23.07%; Learner Tien (Visit): 76.93%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.95%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.41%EV +7.95%E +1.70%K +2.16%G +0.172% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.59%EV -7.68%E -6.40%K -38.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV +2.64%E +0.593%K +0.765%G +0.020% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -6.91%E -5.71%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +1.49%E +0.338%K +0.437%G +0.007% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -0.128%E -0.029%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-11-03 10:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -0.128%E -0.029%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.68%E -6.40%K -38.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.97%E -0.464%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-11-03 11:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.06%E -2.43%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-11-03 11:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.06%E -2.43%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-11-03 11:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-03 11:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.13%E -0.744%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.05%E -0.973%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-11-03 11:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.05%E -0.973%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-11-03 11:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.37%E -4.37%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-03 10:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.43%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.91%E -5.71%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -6.59%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -3.06%E -2.43%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-11-03 11:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.72%EV -7.28%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.28%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-11-03 11:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 10:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-03 11:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-11-03 10:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-11-03 11:19 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 10:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 10:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.91%E -5.71%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.68%E -6.40%K -38.39%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-11-03 10:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -7.74%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -8.45%E -7.10%K -44.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-11-03 11:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.89%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-03 11:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -11.20%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-03 11:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -11.20%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.24%EV -7.68%E -6.40%K -38.39%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-11-03 11:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.35%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-11-03 10:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.35%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.83%E -3.07%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-11-03 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -12.35%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.60%E -3.71%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-11-03 11:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.51%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-11-03 11:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.51%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.14%E -5.03%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-11-03 11:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -13.51%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -7.68%E -6.40%K -38.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-11-03 10:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.01%EV -23.88%E -7.24%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 73.99%EV -10.76%E -9.27%K -67.22%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 1.5% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 1.5% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 1.5% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |
| Novig◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.60% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 1.7% | 2026-11-03 11:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 3.3% | 2026-11-03 11:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.73% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.27% | 3.5% | 2026-11-03 11:55 |