L’École des cotes

Joao Fonseca v Ben Shelton

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-17 14:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Joao Fonseca (Local)

Prévision 64.17%1.56cote équitable
EV -0.541%
Avantage -0.349%
Kelly -0.984%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.41%64.07%63.91%68.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.461.451.5571.43%68.33%68.97%64.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Ben Shelton (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.83%2.79cote équitable
EV +7.50%
Avantage +2.50%
Kelly +3.75%
Croissance +0.281%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.82%35.93%36.09%39.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.632.653.0042.55%38.02%37.74%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Bovada1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -10.17%E -7.26%K -25.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +7.50%E +2.50%K +3.75%G +0.281%4.8%2026-04-17 13:40
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 66.89%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.11%EV +5.71%E +1.93%K +2.93%G +0.167%2.4%2026-04-17 13:35
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.92%E +1.35%K +2.06%G +0.081%4.9%2026-04-17 13:30
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -10.17%E -7.26%K -25.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +0.332%E +0.119%K +0.185%G +0.001%7.1%2026-04-17 13:44
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -0.384%E -0.138%K -0.216%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 13:34
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.834%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 13:45
Betr (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.834%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 13:32
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.834%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 13:30
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -1.46%E -0.531%K -0.834%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 13:45
LowVig.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.53%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-17 13:34
BetOnline.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.39%E -2.95%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -2.53%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-17 13:34
SportsBet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -2.53%E -0.932%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 13:36
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 13:44
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 13:30
theScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 13:45
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -8.88%E -6.26%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 13:44
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-17 13:44
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 13:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 13:45
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 63.35%EV -3.11%E -2.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.65%EV -6.48%E -2.48%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-17 13:44
Caesars1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.03%E -3.40%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 13:34
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 13:45
Winamax (DE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 13:45
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -7.60%E -5.28%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -8.63%E -3.38%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 13:44
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.75%E -2.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:45
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 13:39
Fliff1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.96%E -4.80%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 13:44
Winamax (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 13:45
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 62.37%EV -6.32%E -4.33%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.63%EV -13.28%E -5.49%K -9.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 13:39
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -1.82%E -1.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -14.72%E -6.18%K -10.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 13:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -0.541%E -0.349%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -15.08%E -6.36%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -0.541%E -0.349%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -15.08%E -6.36%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 13:44
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -1.18%E -0.768%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 13:44
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-04-17 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-04-17 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-04-17 13:45
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%1.4%2026-04-17 13:44
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 65.29%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.71%1.4%2026-04-17 13:45
ProphetX1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%4.0%2026-04-17 13:45
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%6.3%2026-04-17 13:45