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Ugo Humbert v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prediction 4.74%21.11fair odd
EV +117.95%
Edge +2.56%
Kelly +2.62%
Growth +3.09%
assuming max odds 46.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.15%4.91%4.59%9.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0022.1921.0046.0010.00%4.51%4.76%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 95.26%1.05fair odd
EV -0.927%
Edge -0.892%
Kelly -23.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.83%95.09%95.41%97.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.04100.00%98.98%99.01%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ugo Humbert (Local): 4.74%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 95.26%. For Ugo Humbert (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.11. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +117.95%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.15%EV +117.95%E +2.56%K +2.62%G +3.09% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.85%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 1.2% | 2026-04-07 10:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 42.00I 2.38%NM 2.33%EV +98.99%E +2.36%K +2.41%G +2.39% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.67%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +94.26%E +2.30%K +2.36%G +2.22% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +94.26%E +2.30%K +2.36%G +2.22% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +94.26%E +2.30%K +2.36%G +2.22% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26%EV +42.14%E +1.40%K +1.45%G +0.612% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.74%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-07 10:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +37.40%E +1.29%K +1.34%G +0.500% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +37.40%E +1.29%K +1.34%G +0.500% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-07 10:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +37.40%E +1.29%K +1.34%G +0.500% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-07 10:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +23.19%E +0.892%K +0.927%G +0.215% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +18.45%E +0.738%K +0.769%G +0.142% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 23.06I 4.34%NM 4.32%EV +9.26%E +0.401%K +0.420%G +0.039% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.68%EV -0.927%E -0.892%K -23.19%G +0.000% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +8.97%E +0.390%K +0.408%G +0.037% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV -0.503%E -0.024%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -0.503%E -0.024%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -0.503%E -0.024%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -0.503%E -0.024%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV -14.72%E -0.818%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-07 10:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 17.25I 5.80%NM 5.53%EV -18.27%E -1.06%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.47%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -19.45%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -19.45%E -1.14%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -4.74%E -4.74%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -28.93%E -1.93%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -28.93%E -1.93%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -33.67%E -2.40%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -33.67%E -2.40%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -33.67%E -2.40%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-07 10:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -38.41%E -2.95%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 10:47 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -38.41%E -2.95%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 10:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -40.78%E -3.26%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 10:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -43.14%E -3.60%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-07 10:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -47.88%E -4.35%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 10:43 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -50.25%E -4.79%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -2.83%E -2.78%K -141.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 10:43 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -52.62%E -5.26%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -3.79%E -3.75%K -378.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-07 10:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 48.00I 2.08%NM 2.08% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.92% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 42.00I 2.38%NM 2.37% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.63% | 0.4% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 1.0% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 1.0% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.59% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.41% | 1.6% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.97% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.03% | 2.0% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 30.30I 3.30%NM 3.19% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.81% | 3.3% | 2026-04-07 10:50 |