Language:English
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Cristian Garin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local)
Prediction 46.58%2.15fair odd
EV +6.19%
Edge +2.72%
Kelly +4.84%
Growth +0.300%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.56%46.42%46.81%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.732.062.072.2857.80%48.44%48.31%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cristian Garin (Visit)
Prediction 53.42%1.87fair odd
EV +6.85%
Edge +3.42%
Kelly +6.85%
Growth +0.469%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%53.58%53.19%58.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.741.752.0063.29%57.59%57.14%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local): 46.58%; Cristian Garin (Visit): 53.42%. For Cristian Garin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -19.42%E -11.23%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +6.85%E +3.42%K +6.85%G +0.469% | 7.8% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -16.16%E -8.98%K -20.20%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +4.18%E +2.14%K +4.40%G +0.184% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.24%E -1.22%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.92%E -2.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.30%E -1.83%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 09:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 09:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-05 09:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 09:08 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 09:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.69%EV +3.87%E +1.73%K +3.14%G +0.122% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV -7.58%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-05 09:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.65%E -5.06%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 09:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV +4.33%E +1.93%K +3.49%G +0.151% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -9.71%E -5.75%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-05 09:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV +2.00%E +0.915%K +1.68%G +0.034% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -9.71%E -5.75%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 08:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +6.19%E +2.72%K +4.84%G +0.300% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-05 09:07 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +6.19%E +2.72%K +4.84%G +0.300% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-05 09:07 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV +0.140%E +0.065%K +0.122%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -11.32%E -6.82%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 08:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +2.47%E +1.12%K +2.06%G +0.051% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 09:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV +0.140%E +0.065%K +0.122%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -13.45%E -8.31%K -21.70%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-05 08:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +4.80%E +2.13%K +3.84%G +0.184% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -14.52%E -9.08%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-05 09:08 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +4.80%E +2.13%K +3.84%G +0.184% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -14.52%E -9.08%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-05 09:08 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -15.59%E -9.87%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-05 09:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90% | 1.4% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.06% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.94% | 3.5% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51% | 4.4% | 2026-04-05 09:10 |