La scuola delle quote

Nikoloz Basilashvili v Cristian Garin

Inizio: 2026-04-05 10:00 UTC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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25 bookmaker (12 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Nikoloz Basilashvili (Casa)

Previsione 46.58%2.15quota equa
EV +6.19%
Vantaggio +2.72%
Kelly +4.84%
Crescita +0.300%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.28

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
41.56%46.42%46.81%53.62%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.732.062.072.2857.80%48.44%48.31%43.86%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Cristian Garin (Trasferta)

Previsione 53.42%1.87quota equa
EV +6.85%
Vantaggio +3.42%
Kelly +6.85%
Crescita +0.469%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
46.38%53.58%53.19%58.44%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.581.741.752.0063.29%57.59%57.14%50.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (25 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼MargineAggiornamento
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -19.42%E -11.23%K -26.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +6.85%E +3.42%K +6.85%G +0.469%7.8%2026-04-05 09:10
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -16.16%E -8.98%K -20.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +4.18%E +2.14%K +4.40%G +0.184%6.8%2026-04-05 09:10
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.24%E -1.22%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 09:10
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.92%E -2.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.30%E -1.83%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 09:09
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 09:10
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 09:10
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-05 09:08
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.52%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 09:10
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 09:09
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -11.04%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 09:10
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.85%E -3.42%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 09:08
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 09:09
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -11.50%E -6.05%K -12.78%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 09:10
GTbets2.23I 44.84%NM 43.69%EV +3.87%E +1.73%K +3.14%G +0.122%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV -7.58%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-05 09:00
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.65%E -5.06%K -12.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 09:09
Pinnacle2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV +4.33%E +1.93%K +3.49%G +0.151%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -9.71%E -5.75%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 09:00
ReBet2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV +2.00%E +0.915%K +1.68%G +0.034%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -9.71%E -5.75%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 08:59
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +6.19%E +2.72%K +4.84%G +0.300%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 09:07
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +6.19%E +2.72%K +4.84%G +0.300%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 09:07
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV +0.140%E +0.065%K +0.122%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -11.32%E -6.82%K -17.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 08:59
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +2.47%E +1.12%K +2.06%G +0.051%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 09:06
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV +0.140%E +0.065%K +0.122%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -13.45%E -8.31%K -21.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 08:59
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +4.80%E +2.13%K +3.84%G +0.184%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -14.52%E -9.08%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 09:08
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +4.80%E +2.13%K +3.84%G +0.184%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -14.52%E -9.08%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 09:08
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -3.59%E -1.73%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -15.59%E -9.87%K -26.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-05 09:00
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-04-05 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-04-05 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-04-05 09:10
Novig2.01I 49.75%NM 48.06%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.94%3.5%2026-04-05 09:10
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%4.4%2026-04-05 09:10