Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zizou Bergs v Jenson Brooksby

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zizou Bergs (Local)

Prediction 95.63%1.05fair odd
EV +0.415%
Edge +0.395%
Kelly +8.29%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.14%95.20%96.05%99.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.011.05100.00%98.35%99.01%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jenson Brooksby (Visit)

Prediction 4.37%22.90fair odd
EV +450.24%
Edge +3.57%
Kelly +3.60%
Growth +16.22%

assuming max odds 126.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.79%4.80%3.95%10.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.4524.9915.00126.0011.83%4.00%6.67%0.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zizou Bergs (Local): 95.63%; Jenson Brooksby (Visit): 4.37%. For Jenson Brooksby (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.90. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 126.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +450.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 99.21%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.79%EV +450.24%E +3.57%K +3.60%G +16.22%0.8%2026-03-19 16:38
Paddy Power🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +192.59%E +2.87%K +2.92%G +5.62%1.5%2026-03-19 16:38
Coral🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +192.59%E +2.87%K +2.92%G +5.62%1.5%2026-03-19 16:39
DraftKings🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 98.46%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%64.00I 1.56%NM 1.54%EV +179.49%E +2.80%K +2.85%G +5.11%1.6%2026-03-19 16:36
Pinnacle🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 98.43%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%63.15I 1.58%NM 1.57%EV +175.77%E +2.78%K +2.83%G +4.97%0.6%2026-03-19 16:40
FanDuel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +79.05%E +1.93%K +1.98%G +1.56%1.4%2026-03-19 16:37
BoyleSports🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +48.48%E +1.43%K +1.47%G +0.712%2.9%2026-03-19 16:36
theScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%2.9%2026-03-19 16:36
888sport🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%3.8%2026-03-19 16:37
Bovada🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%3.8%2026-03-19 16:36
Fanatics🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%3.8%2026-03-19 16:38
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%3.8%2026-03-19 16:37
888sport (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +13.54%E +0.521%K +0.542%G +0.073%3.8%2026-03-19 16:37
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +0.440%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-19 16:36
Betway🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.83%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +0.440%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-19 16:36
Casumo🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -2.45%E -2.41%K -122.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 16:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -2.45%E -2.41%K -122.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -2.45%E -2.41%K -122.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 16:29
betPARX🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -2.45%E -2.41%K -122.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 16:29
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 16:34
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 16:36
Bet Victor🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -4.37%E -4.37%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -34.50%E -2.30%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-19 16:37
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -43.23%E -3.33%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-19 16:30
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -47.60%E -3.97%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -47.60%E -3.97%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -47.60%E -3.97%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 16:30
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -3.41%E -3.38%K -341.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -47.60%E -3.97%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -54.15%E -5.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -54.15%E -5.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -2.45%E -2.41%K -122.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -54.15%E -5.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV +0.415%E +0.395%K +8.29%G +0.034%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -56.33%E -5.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 16:32
Caesars🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV +0.415%E +0.395%K +8.29%G +0.034%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -60.70%E -6.74%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 16:32
LiveScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -0.542%E -0.521%K -13.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -60.70%E -6.74%K -7.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 16:32
Virgin Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -0.542%E -0.521%K -13.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -60.70%E -6.74%K -7.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 16:32
LeoVegas🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -60.70%E -6.74%K -7.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 16:32
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -62.88%E -7.40%K -8.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-19 16:32
Fliff🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.14%EV -1.50%E -1.45%K -49.93%G +0.000%8.45I 11.83%NM 10.86%EV -63.10%E -7.47%K -8.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-19 16:32
Unibet (FR)🎯⚠ implausible2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV +131.43%E +54.31%K +92.56%G +121.65%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -93.14%E -59.33%K -163.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 15:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-03-19 16:38
ProphetX1.05I 95.24%NM 94.02%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.98%1.3%2026-03-19 16:29
Matchbook1.06I 94.34%NM 92.72%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.28%1.7%2026-03-19 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%2.0%2026-03-19 16:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%2.0%2026-03-19 16:39
Smarkets1.01I 99.01%NM 96.40%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.60%2.7%2026-03-19 16:36
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 95.06%19.23I 5.20%NM 4.94%5.2%2026-03-19 16:39